Tonight in Charlotte, the attention will be on the point guard matchup between Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball, and rightfully so. However, the Hornets are also the most favorable matchup for centers right now, which could lead to a big night for Grizzlies center Steven Adams.
The Bulls also host the Nets tonight, and Nikola Vucevic is another center in a favorable spot.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans host the Rockets but will do so without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. That will put the ball in C.J. McCollum’s hands a lot more.
Let’s dive into the big slate for Wednesday’s NBA games and find where the betting value lies.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Steven Adams Over 14.5 Rebounds (-102)
|Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets||Grizzlies -8|
|Time | TV||7:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Usually, when I’m looking to bet someone to grab 15 rebounds or more, I’m looking for odds in the range of +500 or so. That will not be possible with the run Adams has been on of late.
The Grizzlies’ center has pulled down 61 rebounds (20.3) over his last three games. He’s averaging 30.3 rebound chances in that span, so he’s pulling down about two-thirds of them.
Tonight, Adams gets the Hornets, and at this point, centers around the league have to be checking their calendars to see when they face Charlotte. The Hornets rank 28th in rebounds allowed per game and 29th in defensive rebounds per game, according to props.cash. They also allow the most rebounds to centers.
In the last three weeks or so, the Hornets have allowed 15 boards or more to Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, Jusuf Nurkic, Thomas Bryant and Jalen Duren. Jokic and Sabonis each had more than 20, while Bryant also had 13 in a second meeting against the Hornets.
Adams grabbed 19 rebounds in his first meeting against Charlotte in November. Last season, Adams had 14 rebounds in 28 minutes and 11 rebounds in 16 minutes (foul trouble) in two meetings against the Hornets.
The Hornets sit eighth in pace, while the Grizzlies are ninth. Memphis ranks second in defensive rating, meaning a few extra stops in a high-possession game could turn into a few extra rebounds for Adams.
If Adams stays out of foul trouble, I like his chances of grabbing 15 rebounds tonight.
Nikola Vucevic 10.5 Rebounds (-111)
|Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls||Nets -5|
|Time | TV||8:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Another center I like tonight is Vucevic.
The Bulls center is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game, which is exactly on par with this line. However, he has gone over this line in five of his last eight games, including a 13-rebound performance and two games with 14.
Tonight, Vucevic has the Nets, who aren’t as favorable of a matchup as Charlotte. The Nets are 10th total rebounds allowed, but they’re 26th in offensive rebounds allowed. Brooklyn also ranks 21st in defending centers, per props.cash.
Vucevic pulled down 15 rebounds against the Nets in the first meeting in November.
Vucevic is averaging 16.4 rebound chances per game this season and is pulling down 64% of them. Plus, over his last five games, Vucevic is averaging 18.4 rebound chances.
He’s facing a hot Brooklyn team that enters on a 12-game losing streak. However, if Vucevic gets his usual 30 minutes (average of 33.1), he should pull down 11 rebounds tonight.
CJ McCollum Over 7.5 Assists (-102)
|Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans||Pelicans -7|
|Time | TV||8:10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Since moving to the Pelicans last season, McCollum has seen his role as a playmaker expand compared to his time in Portland. He averaged 5.8 assists in 26 games with the Pelicans last season and is averaging six assists per game this season.
McCollum takes on even more playmaking responsibilities when New Orleans is without Williamson and/or Ingram. Williamson suffered a strained right hamstring against the Sixers on Monday and is out for the next three weeks.
McCollum has played eight games without Williamson this season, and he’s averaging 8.3 assists in those games. Ingram has been out since Nov. 25 with a toe injury and remains out tonight. McCollum played three games without both Williamson and Ingram in December and averaged 8.7 assists in those contests.
McCollum now faces the Rockets, who offer a solid matchup. The Rockets rank 19th in points allowed per game and assists allowed per game. McCollum had seven assists against the Rockets in November with Williamson and Ingram.
As the main facilitator tonight, I like his chances of racking up eight assists.