Anthony Davis Under 45.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-115 DraftKings)
Seeing this combo prop at this high of a number absolutely flummoxed me. And I don’t use that word all too often. Despite a pace-up spot for the Lakers in what should be a fast-paced game. Memphis has the best defense in the league.
Yes, they are playing shorthanded, but I don’t see their defense taking a big enough step back to the reason this prop sitting so high. Anthony Davis is a walking injury, and this season he’s averaged 26 points per game with 12 boards and just shy of three assists. That’s not even getting to the 40 mark in those categories, so I can’t reason why it would be at 45.5 on DraftKings.
Remember to jump on lines you like early too. Yes, you should shop around. But sports betting is a dynamic market that makes quick changes. I have to imagine this will be a good example of the line dropping over the course of today. I’m putting one unit on it.
Gordon Hayward Under 4.5 assists (+110 DraftKings)
For your value play of the day, I am fading the former Butler Bulldog in a tough matchup on the road against the Knicks.
New York’s 11th-ranked defense should mark trouble for Charlotte and their 28th-ranked offense. Without many scoring opportunities, I don’t expect Hayward to reach his assist total. Not only that, but New York plays at one of the slowest paces in the league, so the possession numbers simply won’t be there either.
Hayward has only averaged 3.7 assists per game, so this line I am a bit more confused by this as well. Despite overperforming of late. He is due for some solid regression, and this is the perfect opportunity for that. I’ll be betting a single unit on this play.
Kelly Oubre Jr. Under 21.5 points (-105 DraftKings)
Oh hey, look, a correlated play to the most recent bet! Wouldn’t be too bad of a first two legs for an SGP if you’re asking me.
I won’t repeat myself on how I think Charlotte will struggle to score, but I will emphasize how the projections seem to be with me here too. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet gives Oubre an 18.6-point projection and a 69 percent chance for this prop to go under, making it a solid five-star bet that I will be placing one unit on.