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John Collins Over 19.5 Pts + Reb (-125)
In a game where Atlanta is facing the 25th-ranked defense, John Collins should flourish tonight in Utah.
While I usually go with Trae Young or Dejounte Murray when betting on the Hawks, Collins is my choice tonight because, despite his -125 odds, I still see this as a solid value. Collins has been consistently averaging 7.7 rebounds a game consistently over the last two months, along with 14.5 points, it’s interesting to me that this prop is so low considering when he has done in recent play.
He’s recorded at least 20 points and rebounds in four of the last five games. This is one of the best bets on the slate, with a projected +38 percent expected value via the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.
Al Horford Over 5.5 rebounds (-120)
For another prop that is too low, we have Al Horford’s rebound total.
Horford’s rebounding has been low over the past two weeks, averaging 4.4 rebounds a game, but that number is due to some big-time positive regression, and his total has come down too much, and now is the time I expect it to come back up.
Boston is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, ranking seventh in the nation. To combine that with the Celtics’ sixth-ranked defense, there will be a lot of rebounding potential tonight for Boston, and I expect Horford to bring down a bulk of them.
Damian Lillard Under 4.5 rebounds (+125)
As the value play of the day, I’m going with Dame under 4.5 rebounds total.
Compared to Horford, Lillard is on the other side of overperforming in the rebounding category, and I see his prop as inflated and due for some negative regression. He has averaged 4.1 boards a game the entire season, and tonight I see him at that number. With plus odds, I love the play.
With two sub-par defenses going at it, I expect the offenses to be more efficient and the opportunities to rebound not as high. For the opportunities that do arise, I see Drew Eubanks or Porzingis grabbing them over Lillard.
