The NBA is back! There are storylines abound throughout the league including what will the re-vamped New York Knicks look like. Does Victor Wembanyama have a ceiling for his sophomore season? What teams will surprise and flop? It’s all up in the air during the best time of year with the NBA, NHL, NFL, and MLB all going on at the same time. I’ll be coming at you on Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays with my best NBA player props. Last year I finished 156-120 so I hope to run back another winning season.
As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms so make sure you’re getting the best value. What a time to be alive. Let’s get into it and find some winners.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.
Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-0 | Season: 0-0
Pascal Siakam Over 7.5 rebounds (-128 on FanDuel)
After getting traded to the Indiana Pacers halfway through the season last year, Siakam ended up leading the team in rebounds with 7.8 a game across 41 contests played in 2024. He helped bolster the Pacers offense as Indiana finished first in the league in offensive rating over the final quarter or so of games last year and a respectful 17th in defensive rating, given how they started the season near the bottom of the league. The Pistons had one of the most historically bad seasons a year ago and it didn’t exactly finish strong to enter this year. Detroit finished 2-13 over their final 15 games, ranking dead last in offensive rating. Looking at rebounding metrics, they also ranked 29th in rebounding percentage over that same time frame. The addition of Tobias Harris doesn’t exactly scare me and the Pistons should get more shots off than normal, given the expected pace-up spot facing off against Indiana. Simply put, that means the opportunity for Siakam to gobble up additional rebounds will be high here and this prop sits around -145 at other books so I’d jump on it before you have to pay any additional juice.
Tyler Herro Under 9.5 Reb + Ast (-105 on ESPN Bet)
If you aren’t aware, the NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet is one of the best-kept secrets in sports betting. The Sheet is a big reason why I had such a successful season last year and its projections are unmatched. My first step when writing out player props is taking a look at the sheet to get a lay of the land and I’d advise the same with you. I can’t say I always agree with their projections but when I do, the winning percentage is unmatched. This prop is projected at 8.0 with a 72% cover probability and I agree here. Orlando finished last year with one of the best defenses in the league and one of the slowest-paced teams. They rebounded at a top-10 rate and it’s a team built on defense that should only improve with their young core another year older and a playoff series in their belt. This is an easy bet here and the projections agree.
Tyus Jones Over 7.5 assists (+120 on FanDuel)
There may not be a better fit than pass-first Tyus Jones at point guard with the offensive weapons Phoenix has in Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant. With Washington last year, Jones averaged 7.3 assists a game and while the pacing and opportunity will take a step back in Phoenix, the efficiency should skyrocket. Looking at the end of the year, the Sun and Clippers were both a respectful middle of the pack in pace and under new head coach Mike Budenholzer, expectations are high. There are only going to be so many games this year where the Sun are healthy with their offensive playmakers all on the court and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones gets to double-digit assists here against a banged-up Clippers team. To get him over 7.5 assists at plus money is phenomenal value.
Other NBA Player Prop Bets
- Tyrese Maxey Under 29.5 points (-118 on BetRivers)
- Dennis Schroder Under 16.5 points (-124 on BetRivers)
- Scoot Henderson Over 19.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-105 on ESPN Bet)
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.