There are only two props that caught my eye tonight. Since there are only two, I thought I would provide some juice on this Sunday night of hoops. Both players somewhat rely on important injury news, but I do like taking these lines early in anticipation of the news. Let’s dive into which players to target tonight.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Deandre Ayton, Over 11.5 Rebounds (+105)
|Suns vs. Mavericks||Suns -8|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Phoenix Suns are red-hot right now as they have won 11 straight games. They are 7-2 at home this season as they welcome in the Denver Nuggets tonight, who are 2-4 on the road. The Nuggets have lost their last four games.
The Suns are eight-point favorites which certainly implies that Nikola Jokic will not play. He is questionable as he missed last game due to injury. Jokic has missed two games this season, and the Nuggets have really struggled without him. In those games, they have a Defensive Rating of 116.1 compared to 103.8 when he plays.
Not only are they bad defensively, but they also really struggle rebounding. In those two games, the Nuggets have been out-rebounded by a combined 98 to 77. That is a combined differential of -21 which is absurd for two games. Jokic is second in the entire league with 13.6 rebounds per game, so it is a big loss.
Even if Jokic is able to suit up, Deandre Ayton still has a chance to beat this prop. He has been a rebounding machine lately. He has had 12 or more rebounds in five of his last six games. In the one that he didn’t get to 12 rebounds, he finished with 11. He really has been cleaning the glass.
The best value for this prop is on DraftKings tonight where you are receiving juice. I would bet this before the status on Jokic comes out. However, make sure you monitor his status in our news dashboard on Fantasy Labs. If you miss the 11.5 and Jokic is ruled out, I would bet this up to 12.5 rebounds.
Scottie Barnes, Over 3.5 Assists (+135)
|Warriors vs. Raptors||Warriors -9|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This prop on Scottie Barnes also somewhat depends on injury news. The Toronto Raptors play against the best team in the league tonight in the Golden State Warriors, who are 14-2 this season.
The big news in this game is the status of OG Anunoby who has sat out the last two games due to injury. Without Anunoby in the lineup, Barnes has had back-to-back games with six assists. He really takes more of the ball handling role in this offense, even with Pascal Siakam back from injury.
The matchup tonight certainly isn’t ideal as the Warriors lead the league in Defensive Rating and have the seventh-highest Pace this season. Being favored by 9-points also brings into play the chance this game gets out of hand, especially if Stephen Curry gets scorching hot from deep again.
The rookie from Florida State has been pretty good this year, despite some inconsistency with his shot. I’ll be honest — I think this line is wrong. In the entire month of November there has only been ONE game out of eight where Barnes has failed to get four or more assists. I love this value on Barnes tonight.
The best value for this prop is on DraftKings tonight where you get some very strong juice of +135. I would bet this number even if it got to 4.5 assists, but I definitely prefer it stay at 3.5. Make sure to shop around for the best value.