It was a solid first week of the NBA season as we got used to different names in new places and James Harden being James Harden. Nothing is better than a fresh betting slate for you to build up your bankroll all year. I will be here all season every Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to give you the best player props for the day. Remember, it’s a long NBA season. Don’t go betting your entire paycheck on any single prop, even if it’s incredible value. With the season just getting underway there will be a lot of learning about each team and players usage but that’s all part of the fun. Finally, remember to monitor injury news as being on top of players playing or not is a sharp way to make some money before lines adjust. Here are my best bets for tonight’s action.
Wednesday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.
Last Time: 3-2
Ziaire Williams Under 19.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-120, DraftKings)
After averaging 11 points, 7.5 boards, and 1.5 assists in this short season I am a bit surprised by this line on the road at Utah. It has been a tough year for Memphis so far, starting the season 0-4, and they have yet to eclipse 110 points as the total for tonight sits around 225 against the 1-4 Jazz.
I wouldn’t exactly say that Utah is sunshine and rainbows either after allowing 126 to Phoenix and 110 to Denver respectfully but they are due for some positive regression after facing a gauntlet of offenses to start the year.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects Ziare to sit more around 10 PAR in this combo prop which is a remarkable value. I trust the BettingPros projections and will always recommend using that sheet to assist in your betting, especially closer to tip-off. This prop is simply overinflated and I feel confident in the under.
Davion Mitchell Under 17.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-120, DraftKings)
Last year whenever the Kings played the Warriors, throwing a dart at any player prop and taking the over was a generally lucrative position. But I’m zagging here in the early weeks of the NBA off the little – but valuable – data we have so far.
Last year, Golden State was easily the fastest-paced team with an average defense while Sacramento led the league in offensive efficiency. So far this year, the Warriors’ defense has jumped to seventh with their pace sitting at 17th while the Kings’ offense is just inside the top 10.
Yes, it’s only been three or four games but the new-look Warriors appear to be controlling the pace a bit more and despite a 231.5 total, their defense has been stepping up so far too.
I buried the lede a bit too with Davion Mitchell starting over De’Aaron Fox the Kings offense obviously takes a hit and the market has overadjusted his expectations as he will be thrust into the starting role.
Luka Doncic Over 32.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
With Kyrie Irving questionable tonight with a left foot sprain, I’m surprised this line isn’t set higher.
Dallas has been on an absolute tear, starting the year 3-0 with the best offense in the league. Doncic has been averaging a cool 39 points per game and in the one game at home so far he posted 49.
I have a feeling Doncic is going to continue scoring at the near 40 range and you won’t continue to see his points prop this low as the season continues, especially if Kyrie is sidelined at all. Of course, monitor injury news because if he is in then Luka’s props will probably dip, making them more of a value play at that point because I still like this line regardless. Chicago does not scare me defensively and Luka has been averaging a near triple-double so far if you want to take any of his combo props instead.
- Jordan Clarkson Over 195 Pts + Reb (-125, DraftKings)
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 13.5 Points (-118, FanDuel)
- DeMar DeRozan Over 29.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-120, DraftKings)