We’ve got five NBA games back-to-back on ABC starting at noon ET. Of those five games, I found my two favorites.
Tap in below with my two best bets for this Christmas basketball slate.
Wednesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
They say the NBA’s ratings are down. But I bet they won’t be when LeBron James and Steph Curry take the floor together tonight.
The Warriors used to have a ton of offense. But now they’re more of a defensive-minded team. The Warriors rank seventh in the NBA in defensive points per 100 possessions and have held opponents to a 52.8% effective field goal percentage. Golden State has also limited offensive rebounds to 26.8% and has earned 15.1% of turnovers.
The Warriors will likely prevent the Lakers from scoring at a high rate. Golden State will likely do a good job against the Lakers on the defensive glass. The only area where the Lakers will succeed is at the foul line. The Warriors have a free throw rate of 22.3%, which is the best rate in the NBA. They’ll get to the foul line and prevent the Warriors from getting there.
After all, the Warriors’ free-throw rate ranks dead last in the NBA. With the Lakers allowing a 17% defensive free-throw rate, Los Angeles should enjoy plenty more foul shot attempts in this game.
That said, Golden State can add more offensive rebounds and doesn’t need to worry as much about turnovers since the Lakers have earned only 14.6% of turnovers. Plus, while the Warriors have struggled to add a high effective field goal percentage, the Lakers are way worse defensively in that category.
The Warriors should be able to take advantage at home.
I’ll ride with the Warriors -3.5 in this one.
Pick: Warriors -3.5 (-115)
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
While Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets, Devin Booker is already listed as out for the Suns. Booker and Grayson Allen won’t be available for Phoenix tonight, hurting the Suns’ offensive potential.
The Suns have scored 115.4 points per 100 possessions. They also hit an effective field goal percentage of 56.4% with just 14.4% of turnovers. However, the Suns typically aren’t effective on the offensive glass and might not get to the foul line as often as they’re used to.
The Nuggets have limited teams to a 16.9% free-throw rate and allowed just a 54.2% effective field goal percentage. If Denver can limit the Suns at the foul line, it will be difficult for them to score consistently.
On the other hand, the Nuggets should do much better on offense. Denver ranks fifth in points per 100 possessions and has shot a 56.7% effective field goal percentage. With Phoenix allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions, it’s clear that Denver will get better looks and more opportunities.
Let’s back the Nuggets -2.5. We’ll stick with the late-night favorites tonight.
Pick: Nuggets -25 (-115)
