We have two standalone NBA Cup quarter-final matchups tonight. I’ve got a best bet for each game.
Read some analysis below and consider tailing my two picks.
Tuesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Orlando Magic aren’t in a great place right now. While they’re 17-9 on the season, the Magic are without Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. These are Orlando’s two best players, but neither will play tonight or anytime soon.
The Magic already rank 23rd in points per 100 possessions and have shot only a 52.7% effective field goal percentage. Additionally, the Magic have turned the ball over 15.4% of the time. They’re good on the offensive glass and super effective at getting to the foul line. But that rate could sink a bit without their two top scorers.
After all, the Bucks have limited opponents to a 53.7% effective field goal percentage. They’ve also allowed just 27% of offensive rebounds and an 18.5% free throw rate. It will be hard for the Magic to score, especially on the road.
On the other hand, the Bucks have been a much more consistent offense. They’ve scored 115.4 points per 100 possessions thanks to a 57.5% effective field goal percentage.
Ultimately, if the Bucks miss shots, they’ll struggle to earn second chances and get just 21.5% of the offensive rebounds per game. At home, the Bucks are in a better position. However, the Magic have still held teams to a 53.6% effective field goal percentage.
Orlando has become one of the best defenses in the NBA, holding teams to 107 points per 100 possessions, 17.7% of turnovers and 25.6% of offensive rebounds allowed.
This game looks like it’ll go under the total.
Pick: Under 213.5 Points (-110)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Dallas Mavericks typically dominate teams on offense. The Mavericks have scored 119.1 points per 100 possessions and have added a 56.8% effective field goal percentage. There’s no major category on offense where the Mavericks don’t rank in the top 15.
However, the Thunder ranks first in defensive points per 100 possessions and first in defensive effective field goal percentage. Beyond that, the Thunder have gained 19.1% of turnovers on defense, which is also the best rate in the NBA.
The only thing holding this defense back is its rebounding. The Thunder have allowed 31.7% of offensive rebounds and have given up a 22.2% free throw rate, which is also not ideal.
Conversely, the Thunder don’t get to the foul line much. Yet. they’re able to limit turnovers to 11.6%. It’s likely the Thunder will still win the turnover battle. However, it’s not so likely they’ll win the rebounding battle. Oklahoma City has also shot just a 54.5% effective field goal percentage. That won’t be good enough against the Mavericks.
Dallas won the first meeting against the Thunder this year on the road, 121-119. I think they’ll sneak out a win tonight as well. That said, I’ll play it safe and back the Mavericks against the spread.
Pick: Mavericks +4.5 (-115)
