After yesterday’s 11 matchups, the NBA has only four games tonight. However, TNT will air a two-game doubleheader.
I’ve decided to look at the two nationally televised games and make a bet on each. Check it out below.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Dallas Mavericks have shot a 50.5% effective field goal percentage, which is 23rd in the NBA. However, don’t expect Dallas to have a ton of success shooting the ball against a Minnesota defense that has held its opponents to a 50.8% effective field goal percentage.
However, Dallas should be able to limit turnovers against a Minnesota defense that has added just 12.2% of turnovers per game. The Mavericks should be able to add some second-chance points, but that won’t happen regularly against Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves. Additionally, Dallas has a 15.1 free-throw rate, good for 29th in the NBA.
On the other hand, Minnesota has been ineffective on the offensive glass. The Timberwolves will likely get to the foul line more but will ultimately struggle from the field, knowing Dallas has held opponents to a 48.8% effective field goal percentage.
After all, Dallas has kept teams to 105.9 points per 100 possessions. The fouls have to get lower. But other than that, the Mavericks have been very good defensively to start the year.
There might be many stars in this game, but neither team has a clear path to many points. I’m on the Under 222.5 (-110).
Pick: Under 222.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are about to be tested early in the season without Steph Curry.
Ultimately, Golden State will need to continue to rely on its defense. The Warriors have held teams to 96.6 points per 100 possessions and have allowed opponents a 44.3% effective field goal percentage. In addition, Golden State has earned 18.4% of turnovers.
While the Pelicans aren’t the hottest shooting team in the league, New Orleans has still limited turnovers to 13.3% and has added 27.2% of offensive rebounds. Those offensive rebounds will still be there tonight, and trips to the foul line won’t go away, either.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have turned the ball over 17.5% of the time. That’s not a good sign going up against a New Orleans team that has earned 18.2% of turnovers this season. Additionally, Golden State is the worst at getting to the foul line. The Warriors must shoot exceptionally well against the Pelicans, who have allowed a 52.3% effective field goal percentage this season.
That said, the Warriors can grab a lot of offensive rebounds. I just don’t think those second-chance points will be enough. Let’s ride with the Pelicans at -3.5 (-105).
Pick: Pelicans -3.5 (-105)
