The NBA Sunday schedule is light with only three games in anticipation of a big Christmas Day slate on Wednesday. Although the slate is light on action, it is still full of great angles to satisfy any bettor. Here are two of my favorite NBA plays for Sunday.
Sunday’s Best NBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
The Rockets continue a stellar start to the season with a trip over the border to Toronto. Houston has put together one of the strongest defenses in the league this year led by a 50.1% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) against, good enough for second-best, and a top-four defensive rebound rate. All of this has happened while going up against a top-five offensive strength of schedule by offensive rating.
Toronto will be a bit of a reprieve for Houston as their offense is not incredibly potent. Their shooting is in the bottom third of the league, as is their turnover rate. The Raptors are a team that has gone 15-13 to the under this season. Against this Houston defense, they’ll have a tough time scoring points or exploiting one of their few offensive strengths – offensive rebounding.
The key in this game is an elite mismatch when Houston is on defense. Offensively, they don’t have championship-caliber shooting. For a team that is 18-9 straight up, their shooting is near the bottom of the league. Toronto has a capable enough defense and size in the paint to hold Houston to a manageable total. With two average-paced teams better on the defensive end, I’m playing the under.
Pick: Under 233 Points (-110)
Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings
It’s no secret both of these teams hoped to get off to better starts than they have this season. At 13-15 (Pacers) or 13-16 (Kings), it’s going to take a stronger performance the rest of the way if either team wants to make noise in the playoffs like they anticipated. One key to this will be if Indiana can recapture their offensive performance from last year.
In 2023-24, Indiana led the league in eFG% and was in the top five in turnover rate. That hasn’t happened this year as they rank eighth and 14th, respectively, in those categories. But the last five games have seen the Pacers’ offense start to play better. Their 50.8% field goal rate and 13.2 turnovers per game are improvements over their season-long stats. Thus, they’ve managed to win four out of their last five to improve their record.
Sacramento has remained a strong offensive team after adding DeMar DeRozan in the offseason. They’re a team that takes care of the ball and likes to play fast on offense. They should be able to take advantage of a below-average Indiana defense. I like both of these teams to assert their will on the offensive end and turn this game into a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 234.5 Points (-110)
