With odds positioning the Warriors as 7-point favorites as the series returns to the Bay, our experts break down how they’re betting this showdown on Thursday. (Spoiler: Their picks don’t include the full-game spread.)
NBA Odds, Picks, Predictions
|Click on a pick to skip ahead|
|Mavericks vs. Warriors 3Q Spread|
|Mavericks vs. Warriors Total|
|Jalen Brunson Prop|
Mavs vs. Warriors 3Q Spread
|Pick||Warriors -1.5 (-112) | -5.5 (+200)|
Brandon Anderson: If you’ve been following our picks this postseason, this one should come as no real surprise.
Take me home, Warriors third quarter.
What did you take away from the Mavs’ win in Game 4? I didn’t take much, other than the Warriors aren’t very good when they’re not focused and locked in — and we already knew that. They didn’t play with their usual intensity, which led to them losing a rebounding battle they’ve dominated this series as well as getting beat repeatedly on defense, which led to a barrage of open 3s for the Mavs that actually fell this time.
Golden State is a totally different team at home — the Warriors have been nearly invincible there all postseason and, really, all year long. And that’s even truer in the third quarter.
Per Pivot Analysis, the Warriors had a +12.6 Net Differential in the third quarter during the regular season, and that was even more dominant at home (+18.3 Net Differential). That has played out in the postseason, too. They’re actually just 5-3 straight up in home third quarters, but when they do win the quarter, the avalanche often hits in a huge way.
In five third -quarter wins this postseason, Golden State isn’t just winning — the Warriors are putting things to bed for good. Their home third-quarter wins have come by nine, 14, 14, 10 and 12 points for an average winning margin of 11.8 points per game. We’ve seen it happen for years, and it can happen in a two-minute stretch: Steph hits a shot, Klay makes another, a steal and a run-out, and suddenly it’s a quick 8-0 run and goodnight for the visitors.
It’s been profitable backing the Warriors at home in the third quarter all year, so why stop now? And while you might be tempted to play it safe with the traditional -1.5 line, remember that when the Warriors do win the quarter, they often win big.
I’ll actually play more of my bet at the alternate -5.5 line at +200 — heck I’ll even play a third quarter win of 11 or more points at +500 at PointsBet. Golden State has done three times already in eight home playoff games, and beat Dallas by 10 and 12 in the home third quarters of Games 1 and 2.
One more time — take me home, Warriors home third quarters.
Mavs vs. Warriors Total
Raheem Palmer: The Warriors and Mavericks can light up the scoreboard in different ways.
The Mavericks are taking a ton of 3s and finally saw positive regression from the 3-point line in Game 4, which should carry over into Game 5. Meanwhile, the Warriors continue to shoot above 60% from 2-point range, so running them off the 3-point line doesn’t work because they can get anything they want inside the arc. And, obviously, they have the splash family — Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson — who have the ability to hit tough 3s.
The Mavs have to put a ton of points to win this game whereas the Warriors haven’t scored fewer than 109 points in this series. The over is 2-2 through four games, but I like this game to over 215.5 (check real-time odds here).
Mavs vs. Warriors Prop
|Pick||Jalen Brunson Over 3.5 Assists (+105)|
Joe Dellera: Brunson has hit this 3.5 assist line in seven of his eight games against the Warriors this season, and in that one miss, he fell short by only one. He’s going to play big minutes for the Mavericks, especially in a potential elimination game — he’s averaged 34.8 minutes per game in this series.
If we look at his overall series, he’s averaging 4.3 assists with 9.3 potential assists, per NBA Advanced Stats. Dallas needs to run its offense through him, and in order for the Mavs to have any success, Brunson needs to have the ball in his hands to set up the rest of his teammates for easier looks.
I like Brunson to go over this 3.5 assist line in a crucial Game 5.