NBA Finals PRO Report: Model Projections, Sharp Bettors Seeing Value On Game 5 Spread

A home team is yet to lose in these NBA Finals, but are the Bucks undervalued in Game 5? Michael Walton reports on the market movement, including how sharp bettors are approaching the spread.

NBA Odds: Bucks vs. Suns

Bucks Odds +4
Suns Odds -4
Over/Under 219
Time | Channel 9:00 p.m. ET | ABC

The Bucks looked more like the dominant team they were in the regular season once the NBA Finals moved to Milwaukee. But with the series tied 2-2 and the incredible Phoenix crowd backing the Suns at home in Game 5, there is good reason to have faith in the Suns.

The home team has won every game in this series, yet it does feel like the Bucks have settled down and figured out something strategically.

Milwaukee has dominated the paint in this series. And things have gotten a bit worse since Phoenix was concerned about the depth behind Deandre Ayton before a rash of injuries hit.

With Phoenix head coach Monty Williams lacking true rim protectors off the bench, he’s managed his physical group of wings (Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, etc.) well, resulting in a solid — at times — inside-defense-by-committee approach. In Game 5, Crowder, Bridges, and Johnson combined for five blocks.

Although Khris Middleton’s 40-point explosion and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s all-time great block were the talks of the game, perhaps the biggest swing factor in Game 4 was Chris Paul’s uncharacteristic five-turnover performance.

It’s tough to bet on Chris Paul having two bad games in a row, but Antetokounmpo and the Bucks should come out with a particularly charged sense of urgency considering their now incredible chance to take a 3-2 lead after starting the series in an 0-2 hole.

Let’s take a look at which way the market is leaning in our latest PRO Report.

NBA Picks: Bucks vs. Suns 

Sharp Action

The line for Game 5 of the NBA Finals opened up at Bucks +3.5, and since Thursday there have been 10 Action Labs Bet Signals triggered on Milwaukee.

This is a sign that sharp bettors are backing the Bucks big-time, driving up Saturday’s spread.

Model Projections 

Our NBA power ratings make the spread Bucks +1.2.

PRO Report Pick: Bucks +4 (-110 at PointsBet)

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