The Celtics outscored the Warriors, 40-16, in the fourth quarter and had a 17-0 run at the end to close the door. They delivered the Warriors their first loss at home this postseason.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jayson Tatum, Over 6.5 Rebounds (-135)
|Warriors vs. Celtics||Warriors -4|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | ABC|
The Celtics have to be feeling extremely good after a huge comeback in Game 1 while Jayson Tatum had a very poor shooting game. He finished with 12 points on 3-of-17 from the field, which was his second-worst shooting performance of the season.
Expect a bounce-back performance for Tatum in Game 2.
Despite Tatum’s shooting performance, he still managed to record 13 assists and five rebounds. Those five rebounds were below this prop line, but that was the first game in his last five in which he failed to pull down eight or more rebounds. During those five games, he’s averaged 8.8 rebounds per game.
With Robert Williams not fully healthy, Tatum has had to increase how often he clashes the glass to finish possessions. Over that five-game stretch, Tatum is also averaging 14 rebound chances per game, second on the team to only Al Horford. Even if his shot isn’t falling, Tatum is crashing the glass.
To no surprise, our model loves this Tatum prop — he’s projected for 8.8 rebounds in Game 2. I would feel comfortable taking this line at better value if it got up to 7.5 rebounds.
The Celtics are playing with house money after stealing Game 1, so a letdown is expected. But this line is still simply too low.
Jordan Poole, Over 2.5 Assists (-105)
Jordan Poole looked a bit star-struck in his first NBA Finals game in his career, as he shot 28.6% from the field with only nine points. He also had just as many turnovers as he did rebounds and assists.
Poole finished with only 25 minutes played — his third-lowest total in a game since the end of February.
Expect a bounce back from not only Poole, but the Warriors tonight. They have yet to lose back-to-back games during this playoff run.
In their 17 total playoff games, Poole’s averaging 4.4 assists and 7.8 potential assists per game, which ranks third in both behind Draymond Green and Stephen Curry.
Of the 17 playoff games, Poole has recorded three or more assists in 13, which is good for a 76.5% hit rate on the over for this prop. A few other sportsbooks have this prop as a much larger favorite, but PointsBet provides the most value at -105. Don’t overreact to Poole’s lackluster Game 1.
There are several props our model loves for Poole, but this assists prop is the best of any player in Game 2. He’s projected for 4.3 assists, which is well over this line.
Poole also averaged four assists and 7.3 potential assists per game during the regular season, so this is my favorite prop on the board.