After dropping Game 2 at home, the Nuggets went on the road and took both games from the Heat in Miami, the latest being a 108-95 victory in Game 4. Now, Denver is one win away from its first NBA title in franchise history.
One player who will be looking to help the Nuggets close out this series is Jamal Murray. We know Murray can fill it up at a high level, but he has also excelled at facilitating for others in this series.
Meanwhile, Miami will be looking to make sure Denver keeps the champagne on ice for at least another game. A pair of 3s from Kevin Love might help bring the series back to Miami.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jamal Murray Over 8.5 Assists (+105)
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
Murray has always been seen as a score-first point guard.
You may be surprised to learn he averaged exactly 4.8 assists per game for three consecutive seasons before a career-high 6.2 this season. In the postseason, he also had not had a double-digit game entering the NBA Finals. That’s why the passing display he has been on in this series may seem a bit jarring.
Murray beaome the first player in NBA history to record 10 assists in each of his first four NBA Finals games. As a facilitator, his performance on June 9 may have been his most impressive thus far with 12 assists and zero turnovers. He’s now averaging 10.5 assists and 2.8 turnovers per game in this series.
Murray has seen his assists line rise from 5.5 to 6.5 to 8.5 for tonight’s game. We hit on his assists in Game 3 and a +475 value cash of 10 assists. We’re not going to get those odds again in this series (+175 on FanDuel tonight), but you can still get this assists line at plus-money.
Despite the fact this line keeps moving, it’s tough to fade Murray’s passing right now.
Murray is averaging over five assists per game just to Nikola Jokic in this series, including four in Game 4. If Murray gets half of his assists to Jokic again, he will only need four or five assists to the rest of his teammates to hit this line.
The rest may just come to Aaron Gordon, who’s coming off a postseason high of 27 points. He has done a great job of taking his opportunities when Murray and Jokic are double-teamed. He may just help Murray hit this line tonight.
Pick: Jamal Murray Over 8.5 Assists (+105)
Kevin Love Over 1.5 3s (+100)
After getting a DNP in Game 1, Love has played at least 16 minutes in each of the last three games.
Figuring out when Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra chooses to deploy him has been a challenge for betting his props in this postseason. However, with the exception of the Eastern Conference Finals, he’s averaging about 19 minutes per game in the playoffs.
When Love is on the floor these days, he’s most likely scoring via the 3-pointer. Love is attempting 6.7 field goal attempts per game in this series, and 5.3 of them have come from behind the arc.
Seven of his eight field goals in this series have been 3s, and he has cashed this over in each of the past three games. In Game 4, Love went 3-for-5 on 3s, and he knocked two on consecutive Miami possessions in the second half.
Love will most likely play in the first and third quarters once again tonight. Ideally, he knocks down two 3s in the first quarter and gives us an early cash. However, at even money, I don’t mind sweating his minutes again tonight.
Pick: Kevin Love Over 1.5 3s (+100)