Suns vs. Bucks Game 6 Odds
|Moneyline||+164 / -196|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday evening and via FanDuel.|
Both teams won their first two home games, but the Bucks broke serve in Game 5, as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday each scored at least 27 points in the road win.
Like the road teams in this series, our Same Game Parlays struggled to start the series, but we hit on our parlay +268 in Game 5.
We’ll try to keep that momentum going with a three-leg Same Game Parlay at +462 on FanDuel.
Bucks Moneyline -205
The Bucks have won nine of their 10 home games this postseason, and I like their chances of closing out the Suns on Tuesday night.
My confidence in the Bucks is inspired by the success of their three best players. Antetokounmpo has been fantastic on both ends of the court. His biggest weakness is his free-throw shooting, and although he has made just 56.5% of his foul shots this series, he’s made 68% of his free throws at home this series.
Khris Middleton is coming off of consecutive strong games, as he dropped 40 points in Game 4 and an efficient 29 in Game 5. His tough shot-making will be key if this comes down to the wire like the last two games.
Jrue Holiday has been magnificent defensively, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bucks deploy him on Booker more frequently in Game 6. Holiday recorded series-high totals in points (27) and assists (13) in Game 5, and I expect him to continue creating advantages by utilizing his size advantage over Chris Paul to get into the paint and put pressure on the rim.
There are significant questions about Paul’s health after tearing ligaments in his right hand against the Clippers-, and he has seen his usage rate significantly decline over the last two games. After recording a usage rate of at least 30% in nine straight games, Paul’s usage rate dropped to 26.2% and 27.6% in Games 4 and 5.
I don’t believe he’s 100%, and although Booker is an incredibly tough-shot maker, he doesn’t have the ability to run the offense and set other secondary scorers up with open looks like Paul can.
I’ll ride with the Bucks at home to finish off the Suns in Game 6 at -205 and will bet this down to -220.
Jrue Holiday Over 8.5 Assists +116
Holiday has been playing high-level basketball on both ends of the court despite more than a few missed layups this series.
He has consistently gotten downhill, and the Bucks have started to play through him more often as he can find advantageous matchups against smaller guards and bully his way into the paint.
Since the Eastern Conference Finals began, Holiday has recorded nine or more assists in eight of 11 games. He’s also coming off a playoff-high 13 assist performance in Game 5 in which he committed only two turnovers.
Listed at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, he is significantly taller than Paul, who is generously listed at 6-foot, 175 pounds. Holiday consistently won this matchup and bullied Paul into the paint in Game 5, and when the Suns tried to hide Paul on Pat Connaughton, the Bucks consistently forced a switch of Paul onto Holiday by involving Connaughton in pick-and-rolls.
Holiday has shown he’s capable of consistently hitting nine assists this postseason, and I expect him to reach this number again as the Bucks continue to take advantage of the Suns’ defensive weak link in Paul.
I love the value on this bet at plus money at +116 and will bet it all the way down to -125.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 0.5 Made 3s
Throughout the postseason, many NBA fans have been frustrated each time Antetokounmpo settles for 3-point jumpers, and it appears he’s finally started to take fewer.
Antetokounmpo shot 30.3% from beyond the arc on 3.6 attempts per game in the regular season, but his efficiency on these shots has gotten even worse in the postseason. He has made just 17.9% of his 3s in the playoffs, and he’s just 1-of-12 (14.0%) on 3s this series.
However, Antetokounmpo has been taking fewer 3s lately, as he’s shot more than two attempts from beyond the arc just twice in the last nine games. In each of the last three games against the Suns, he has attempted two, two, and one 3-point shots — and missed them all.
I expect him to continue this trend of taking two or fewer 3s in Game 6, and I’ll take my chances avoiding a made Antetokounmpo 3 at -111 with value down to -140.