Suns vs. Bucks Game 4 Odds
|Moneyline||+150 / -178|
|Over/Under||220.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday evening and via FanDuel.|
The Suns protected their home-court advantage with consecutive double-digit wins in Phoenix, and the Bucks answered back with a 20-point blowout win in Game 3 in Milwaukee.
The Suns cut the deficit to just four points in the third quarter, but Jrue Holiday hit two 3s in the next minute, and the Bucks never looked back.
Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 41 points and 12 rebounds, but can and the Bucks stay this hot in Game 4 on Wednesday?
Antetokounmpo has been incredible this series, but he is overvalued in Game 4, and our Same Game Parlay at +238 on FanDuel will cash in on his regression.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 34.5 Points (-110)
Antetokounmpo has been on fire lately with consecutive games of at least 40 points and 10 rebounds. Consequently, recency bias has raised his point total from 26.5 entering Game 1 all the way up to 34.5 in Game 4 (a 30% increase).
In 18 postseason games, Antetokounmpo has scored 34 points or fewer 15 times (an 83% hit rate), and I love the value of selling high on him. He has made just two of his nine 3s this series (22%), as he isn’t someone who will rack up points in bunches from beyond the arc.
While he is a better free-throw shooter at home than on the road, I’m not buying that his 13-of-17 performance (77%) from the line is sustainable at such a high volume.
Deandre Ayton was also limited to just 24 minutes in Game 3, and I expect him to play more frequently in Game 4 and provide more resistance to Antetokounmpo in the halfcourt. With Khris middleton and Jrue Holiday going a combined 8-for-17 from beyond the arc (47%), the Bucks’ offense had more spacing than usual (especially when Ayton was on the bench), and Antetokounmpo capitalized.
I’ll hold my breath and take the under with value down to 33.5 points and bet this at -130 or better.
Bobby Portis Over 6.5 Points -110
Bobby Portis has thrived at home in these playoffs, and I love the value on him scoring at least seven points in Game 4.
In the last four postseason games he has played in at home, Portis has scored at least eight points all four times. While he attempted only seven total shots in the first two games of this series, he took 11 shots in Game 3 and scored 11 points while adding eight rebounds — including four offensive boards.
The Bucks have a net rating of +35.9 with him and Antetokounmpo on the court this series, and I expect him to see enough playing time (between 15 and 25 minutes) to record to seven points.
Bucks with Giannis and Bobby Portis together in this series:
Offensive efficiency: 121.3
Defensive efficiency: 85.4
Net rating: +35.9
32% offensive rebound rate, 25.5 2nd-chance points per 100 possessions.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) July 13, 2021
Portis is big enough to find some easy second-chance looks at the rim, and he is also a capable shooter, as he made 47.1% of his 3s in the regular season.
He will benefit again from the energy of the Milwaukee home crowd, and I will bet him to go over 6.5 points with value up to seven points at -135 or better.