This eight-game slate is filled with injury news as the Trail Blazers and Warriors will be very short-handed. There is one prop there that caught my eye along with two others that felt like really strong plays. Let’s start the week strong!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tyrese Maxey, Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160)
|76ers vs. Bulls||76ers -7|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | League Pass|
The Philadelphia 76ers have not lost a game when James Harden is in the lineup. He is back tonight after a one-game absence due to injury maintenance as the 76ers are seven-point home favorites against the Bulls.
The juice on this prop is high, but there’s a good reason. Tyrese Maxey has made two or more 3-pointers in five-straight games, so we’re still getting good value here. With Harden in the lineup, Maxey could get a few more open looks from the perimeter.
Despite being 39-25, the Bulls rank 20th in Defensive Rating this season. They have really struggled lately defensively as they seem to still be trying to figure out how to stop opposing offenses without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. This should be a very entertaining game filled with opportunities for Maxey to hit.
In his second season, Maxey is averaging a career-high 17.6 points per game while shooting 48.3% from the field and a crazy-impressive 42.3% from behind the arc. Maxey is averaging 1.6 made 3-pointers per game this season.
Our model has Maxey projected for only 1.4 3-pointers made per game, probably due to the Bulls only allowing 32.1 3-point attempts per game, which ranks fourth in the league. This prop may move to 2 or 2.5, but get in on this now before that happens. Maxey will have many attempts from the perimeter.
Drew Eubanks, Over 7.5 Rebounds (+105)
|Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers||Timberwolves -15|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | League Pass|
The Trail Blazers have gotten obliterated the last four games, losing by an average of 26.7 points per game. They come in as 15-point road underdogs against the Timberwolves, who beat them by 14 in their last game.
They will also have to be without Anfernee Simons in this contest as another Trail Blazers player goes on the injury list. They are basically running out of bodies to field a team. Jusuf Nurkic remains out, which will solidify the minutes and starting spot for Drew Eubanks, who is our target for this rebounds prop.
Over the last three games, Eubanks is averaging nearly a double-double with 13 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. He has surpassed this 7.5 rebounds prop in all three games. Eubanks had eight rebounds in his last game against the Timberwolves despite fouling out and only playing 28 minutes.
The Timberwolves rank 23rd in Rebounding Percentage this season and they have allowed the fourth-most offensive rebounds at 11.2 per game. Eubanks is a fantastic offensive rebounder as he averages 2.5 per game. A very impressive 32.1% of Eubanks total rebounds come from the offensive end.
Our model has Eubanks projected for 10.3 rebounds tonight, which is crazy high, but goes to show how much value there is on this 7.5 prop at plus-money. If there is a 6.5 rebound prop out there, take it. If not, we’ll roll with getting some juice at 7.5 rebounds for Eubanks against the Timberwolves.
LeBron James, Over 30.5 Points (-105)
|Spurs vs. Lakers||Spurs -2|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | League Pass|
After losing seven of their last eight games, the Lakers bounced back as they got a big victory over the Warriors, led by LeBron James and his season-high 56 points.
Is LeBron James back?! Before that game, he had a very pedestrian stretch (by his standards) where he averaged 26.3 points per game in four games since the All-Star break. The Lakers have a favorable stretch coming up, so it may be time to go on a mini-run. They have an opportunity tonight despite being three-point road underdogs against the Spurs.
This matchup features the highest total on the slate at 236 points as both teams rank in the top five in Pace this season. Anthony Davis is still out for the Lakers, which boosts James’ ceiling. In 25 games without Davis this season, James is averaging 32.6 points per game while shooting 53.3% from the field.
The Spurs have also allowed the third-most points in the paint this season at 51 per game. James should be able to fill it up from all over the court in this matchup. The Lakers are in need of a good stretch of basketball, so James will need to be very aggressive to keep this game close. He is their only hope.
James is averaging 29.4 points per game, which is the most he has had since the 2009-10 season with the Cavaliers. It feels like it’s time for James to go on another run. I would take this bet up to 31.5 points.