There are plenty of props for us to pick through tonight. Let’s begin in Indy with two of tonight’s top plays before heading to Milwaukee.
NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Picks
Tyrese Haliburton Over 30.5 PTS + AST (-120)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Before the season, I had Tyrese Haliburton as one of my favorites for Most Improved Player. However, even I did not anticipate him feeling up the stat sheet like this.
Haliburton is averaging 20.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 10.5 assists, and 1.9 steals. Chris Paul averaged 21.1 points, four rebounds, 11.6 assists, and 2.7 steals in his third year just to show the kind of trajectory Haliburton is on. While Haliburton can fill up the stat sheet in all areas, tonight I am focusing on his points and assists.
For the season, Haliburton is averaging 31.1 PA, so he is going over this line on an average night. He has gone over this line in seven of his last 10 games and in 10 of his 15 games this season overall. Plus, he is coming off a 36 PA performance against the Magic on Saturday night.
Despite the fact he is shooting 49% from the field, there are some games where Haliburton is more passive with his own offense than others. However, that is where his assists carry more weight. Haliburton has recorded double-digit assists in five of his past six games.
The one miss came when the Pacers had a 10-point first quarter against the Rockets and he still had eight. Haliburton leads the league with 10.5 assists per game and 20.3 potential asissts. He had 14 assists and 24 potential assists against the Magic on Saturday.
On Saturday, he also scored 22 points on 9-for-16 from the field and 3-for-8 from beyond the arc. Haliburton has 20 points in five of seven games this another and finished with 19 points in another.
The Magic are 28th in defending point guards. I expect Haliburton to have another big game on Monday night.
Franz Wagner Over 21.5 Points (-106)
Staying in Indiana, I also love Franz Wagner tonight. Wagner has had to step up of late as the Magic have been without Paolo Banchero for the past six games and Wendell Carter on Saturday.
Carter is questionable as of this writing, but Banchero remains out with a sprained ankle. In six games without Banchero, Wagner has scored 20 points in four games and 22 points in three of them. Wagner is averaging 22.2 points this month.
On Saturday against the Pacers, Wagner scored 29 points on 9-for-17 from the field and 5-for-9 from beyond the arc. Indiana is a great matchup for Wagner because it is 29th in points allowed to shooting guards and 24th in defending shooting guards overall.
Indiana is 24th in 3-pointers allowed per game, 25th in 3-point percentage allowed and 28th in free throws allowed. Wagner has gotten to the line 15 times in the last two games and he went 6-for-6 against the Pacers on Saturday.
Wagner has scored 22 points in five of his past eight games. He is in line to have another big game against the Pacers on Monday.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 rebounds (+100)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
While Haliburton and Wagner have favorable statistical matchups tonight, on paper this line does not favor Antetokounmpo. Portland allows the fourth-fewest rebounds per game and the second-fewest defensive rebounds. However, there are few reasons why I expect Gianns to pull down 12 rebounds tonight.
Antetokounmpo has recorded 12 rebounds in nine of the 12 games he has played in this season. Two of the games he did not were against the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have John Collins and Clint Capela to contend with inside and Portland has Jusuf Nurkic. However, Brook Lopez missed one of the matchups against the Hawks.
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When Antetokounmpo shares the floor with Lopez, I like playing his rebounds because Lopez does not grab many himself, with 6.1 on average and five rebounds or less in the last four games. Lopez also pulls opposing big men away from the basket because he usually is at the three point line when Milwaukee is on offense.
If Nurkic is further away from the rim trying to stick close to Lopez, that will give Giannis more to grab offensive rebounds. Portland is more lenient in that area, allowing the 12th fewest offensive rebounds.
In addition to the Hawks, Antetokounmpo has faced the Timberwolves, Cavaliers and Sixers, which means big men Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, Evan Mobley, and Joel Embiid. Antetokounmpo pulled down 14, 12, and 14 rebounds in those games. I expect him to pull down 12 rebounds again tonight.