After a great weekend of playoff action, there are just two games on Monday. Both are pivotal Game 4s, though.
On Saturday night, the Miami Heat cruised to a 121-99 victory over the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks to take a 2-1 series lead. However, the win came at a cost, as star Jimmy Butler left the game with an injury.
Butler is listed as questionable, along with Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Given the stakes of this game, I would expect both of them to play, particularly Antetokounmpo with his team trailing 2-1 in the series.
Because of their questionable status’, the prop lines for several of their teammates are subject to change. One player I feel confident in regardless is Kevin Love.
Many expected LeBron to light up the scoreboard after the comments by Dillon Brooks. While James had 25 points, nine rebounds and five assists, the Lakers also got a solid performance from D’Angelo Russell.
I will be looking to back Russell again.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kevin Love Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
Since joining Miami in February, Love has averaged 5.7 rebounds in 21 games to close out the regular season. He is averaging six rebounds per game in this series despite just 18 minutes an evening.
Love has continued his success on the glass against Milwaukee this season. Love has now faced the Bucks six times and he has cleared this line in five of those games. In all five games, he had at least seven rebounds.
Love got the start in Game 3 and played 21 minutes. That was after playing just 11 minutes in Game 2 when he finished with three rebounds. The Bucks scoring 138 points in that particular game did not help for rebounding props.
I would expect 20 minutes for Love in Game 4, though he could see an uptick if Butler cannot go.
Expect Love to grab the majority of his rebounds at the defensive end. Offensively, Love is at the 3-point line for the majority of Miami’s possessions, and all six of his field goal attempts in Game 3 were 3s. As a result, Love has just one offensive rebound in this series.
However, according to NBAStats, Love is getting 8.7 rebound chances per game in this series and converting 69% of them.
If that trend continues in Game 4, I would expect Love to pull down at least six rebounds.
D’Angelo Russell Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-128)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
D’Angelo Russell was much maligned after shooting 2-of-11 from the field and scoring just five points in Game 2.
While he shot just 5-of-14 in Game 3, he did score 17 points. Where he really excelled, though, was as a facilitator. Russell had seven assists against just two turnovers.
He also chipped in four rebounds to give him 11 rebounds + assists.
Russell has now hit this line in each of his past four games and in each of his last five games against Memphis. In those five games against Memphis, he is averaging 12.6 rebounds + assists.
The Grizzlies are a good matchup for Russell because they were 21st in rebounds allowed and 26th in assists allowed in the regular season, according to props.cash.
It also helps that Russell is a big guard (6-foot-5) and can help chip in on the glass.
Interestingly enough, Russell has recorded exactly 11 rebounds + assists in all three games in this series. He had four rebounds and seven assists in Games 1 and 3 and seven rebounds and four assists in Game 2.
If you want to sprinkle on something, you may be able to get plus odds on over 10.5 rebounds + assists for Russell. I would take it at +200 or higher.
However, I feel confident that Russell will reach nine to cash this over for us.