We are sticking with a theme tonight and going after three point totals. Each of the three players that I covered are in a great spot to torch the nets tonight. Make sure to monitor all of the news as the Covid is keeping players out all over the league.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
DeMar DeRozan, Over 29.5 Points (+100)
|Bulls vs. Rockets||Bulls -7.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Chicago Bulls are playing on a back-to-back tonight after beating the Los Angeles Lakers at home last night, 115-110. They now welcome in the Houston Rockets, who beat them the last time they met. The Rockets are 3-13 on the road this season and the Bulls are 7-point favorites. Revenge is on the table.
Zach LaVine isn’t expected to return until after Christmas due to the Covid protocols, so it will be the DeMar DeRozan show. Losing LaVine and his 26 points per game is a big deal.
However, last night DeRozan proved he can still take over games even at 32 years old. He finished with 38 points, four rebounds, and six assists. He shot a ridiculous 16-17 from the charity stripe.
DeRozan missed the previous three games due to the Covid protocols. Before last night he hadn’t played in a game since Dec. 4 which was over two weeks ago. Seeing DeRozan play 34 minutes last night while getting up 24 field goal attempts has me giddy to see what he can do against the Rockets.
The Rockets rank 25th in Defensive Rating and have given up 112.9 points per game which is the third highest in the league. They also play at the second fastest Pace. DeRozan had a 40.4% usage rate last night! It is safe to say his production will see a major boost without LaVine for the foreseeable future.
I was tempted to take a DeRozan points and assists prop, but I’ll take the points given the shots he can get up without LaVine. Let’s get him another 30-ball.
Donovan Mitchell, Over 26.5 Points (+100)
|Jazz vs. Hornets||Jazz -11.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Utah Jazz have uncharacteristically lost two home games in a row to the Wizards and Spurs. They get a bounce back spot tonight against the Hornets, who are just 8-12 on the road and the Jazz are heavy 11.5-point favorites.
I am having so much fun getting to these even-money points props, let’s go get another one with Donovan Mitchell. This game total is the highest on the slate at a ridiculous 237 points! That is one of the highest totals we have seen all season. The Jazz have an implied total of 124.5 points, which is laughable.
Mitchell continues to lead the Jazz in points averaging 25.2 per game. He ranks fifth in the entire league in usage rate with 33.4%. He has scored 27 or more points in eight out of his last nine games. Over the past 10 games, Mitchell is averaging 29.2 points per game while shooting 53.2% from the field and 40.2% from behind the 3-point arc. He will absolutely light it up tonight.
This matchup against the Hornets is arguably the best matchup in the league. The Hornets rank dead last in Defensive Rating this season and fourth in Pace. They have given up 116.6 points per game, which is also the league worst. They allow 48.7 points in the paint this season which ranks 29th and Mitchell is averaging 4.4 made field goals per game on his drives. He should be in attack mode for most of the night as the Jazz look to get a big bounce back victory.
Need more Hornets defensive nuggets? They also allow 14.2 made 3-pointers per game which is the second worst in the league. Mitchell is burying 3.3 made 3-pointers per game. How you want it, where you want it, Hornets? Mitchell will be able to get any shot that he wants tonight. This is my favorite prop on the board.
Tyrese Haliburton, Over 14.5 Points (-116)
|Warriors vs. Kings||Warriors -12.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Sacramento Kings are trying to hold on just like every other team who is going through the mass Covid protocols. They will be without De’Aaron Fox, Terence Davis, Marvin Bagley, Davion Mitchell, and Alex Len tonight. Richaun Holmes is listed as questionable as he has missed their last six games.
At this point, we’re all in on the points props tonight! I love this Tyrese Haliburton prop as well. Unfortunately this prop isn’t at even-money like the other two, but I wouldn’t mind juicing it up so that it was. There are many Haliburton props that I like, but I thought I would stick with the points theme.
In the last two games without Fox in the lineup, the Kings have been led by Haliburton. He has averaged 24 points per game, 10.5 assists per game, and five rebounds per game. Haliburton had a season-high 25.8% usage rate in his last game and attempted a season-high 19 field goal attempts. He has played 37 and 38 minutes while scoring 21 and 27 points. This prop is way too low.
The major concern here is obviously the matchup. The Warriors lead the league in Defensive Rating this season. They are tied for the least amount of points given up at 101.1 per game. It is not a surprise they are 12.5-point favorites at home tonight where they have only lost two games all season.
Despite the difficult matchup, the books in my opinion are reacting too aggressively. For what it is worth, last season Haliburton averaged the most points against the Warriors compared to any other team in the league. In two games he averaged 22.5 points per game. Even if the Kings get blown out, I still think Haliburton can get there. I would take this prop up to 16.5 points.