With the Super Bowl behind us, the sports world turns to the NBA for entertainment.
We have a great nine-game slate tonight filled with potentially high scoring games. We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Kyle Kuzma, Over 9.5 Rebounds (-115)
|Wizards vs. Pistons||Wizards -4|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Wizards have lost nine of their past 11 games as they are quickly falling out of the play-in picture. However, they are home favorites against the Pistons on the last leg of their five-game home stand.
The Wizards lost a lot of talent recently. Bradley Beal is gone for the season. Starting center Daniel Gafford remains out and the team traded away both Spencer Dinwiddie and Montrezl Harrell. They did acquire Kristaps Porzingis at the deadline (he’s been ruled out too), but this is basically Kyle Kuzma’s team now.
This is a fantastic rebounding matchup against the Pistons. They rank last in Rebounding Percentage this season as Kuzma is averaging a career-high 8.7 rebounds per game. Without all of these Wizards players in the lineup, Kuzma should be able to clean up the glass early and often on both ends of the court.
Kuzma has averaged 10.5 rebounds per game since Harrell left town. Surely once Porzingis is able to get back on the court, Kuzma’s rebounding numbers will go down, but this is a great spot to target Kuzma who will more than likely get a double-double, if not a triple-double once again tonight. The Pistons rank 26th in Defensive Rating this season, however they did just acquire Marvin Bagley as they try and beef up their frontcourt. Kuzma should still be just fine.
Kuzma will not only be heavily involved on the glass tonight, but in the game in general. That is why I am sticking with the rebounds prop and only taking it at 9.5 rebounds. I also don’t mind the idea of sprinkling on a Kuzma triple-double.
Justice Winslow, Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110)
|Bucks vs. Trail Blazers||Bucks -11.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Despite trading away nearly everyone of note on their team, the Trail Blazers have won back-to-back games. They are still 11.5-point underdogs on the road against the Bucks who have won eight of their last 11 games. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo is likely out tonight, per our FantasyLabs newsfeed.
It is unlikely that the Trail Blazers have a chance in this game, despite Antetokounmpo being doubtful, but Justice Winslow has been a great addition to this team. In four games since coming to the Trail Blazers, Winslow is averaging 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He has had seven or more rebounds in three of those four games and is projected for 9.5 tonight.
The spread did drop nearly four points with the news of Antetokounmpo, but the Bucks are still heavy home favorites. The Bucks are just 5-5 when Antetokounmpo doesn’t play and their defense and rebounding numbers also take a big hit.
Winslow is projected for 33 minutes tonight as the Trail Blazers are reeling with injuries and players being traded away. Even if this game does end in a blowout, Winslow will have to see heavy playing time. He is active enough where he should get seven or more rebounds once again in this matchup.
Similar to Kuzma, I love this prop right where it is at tonight with 6.5 rebounds. Our projection does lead me to believe there is value if this prop went to 7.5 rebounds, but I think that is a bit risky. Let’s go to the window with 6.5 tonight.
Stephen Curry, Over 22.5 Points (-120)
|Clippers vs. Warriors||Warriors -6|
|Time | TV||10:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Warriors have gotten back to their winning ways winning 10 of their last 12 games and now take on the Clippers who have lost three of their last four games.
Curry props are popping in our Player Prop Tool every time the Warriors are on the slate. Our model has Curry projected for 29.9 points tonight as that is well over the 22.5 prop number. He has hit that number in back-to-back games.
The Clippers have been very solid defensively this season as they rank 10th in Defensive Rating, allowing 107.8 points per game. They are coming off of back-to-back games where Mavericks guard Luka Doncic absolutely torched them. He 51 and 45 points in those two games. Can Curry do the same?
It has been an up and down year for Curry. Without Draymond Green in the lineup his stats are very boom or bust. He continues to average a career-low 42.2% shooting from the field. His scoring hasn’t taken too much of a dip as he still leads the Warriors averaging 25.7 points per game. The upside isn’t gone.
This projection on Curry’s points leads me to think we could get an alternative line on his points tonight. I would be willing to go up to 24.5 points, but even a sprinkle at an alternative line of 29.5 points against the Clippers isn’t all that crazy tonight. Curry can get as hot as anyone and this is a great matchup.