We won our Christian Wood prop yesterday, but suffered a bad beat as Miles Bridges recorded his fourth assist on the last play of the game. It’s all good, though, we go again tonight with three props I like on this 10-game slate.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Isaiah Stewart, Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
|Pistons vs. Thunder||Pistons -5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a long time to think about their historic 152-79 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. That game was played four days ago. They now travel to Detroit to take on the 4-18 Pistons. I’m not sure how this game was chosen to be on NBA TV tonight, but it is so let’s make a bet on it.
Isaiah Stewart has seen an increase in playing time over his past two games. He has played 33 and 35 minutes and has produced a double-double in both games averaging 13.5 points per game and 14 rebounds per game. Those are his first two double-doubles on the season. Stewart has been a monster on the glass for the Pistons as he leads them averaging 7.9 per game.
Stewart has another great chance to build on those rebounding numbers tonight playing against the undersized and less talented Thunder frontcourt. The Thunder are tied for the league-worst allowing 48.2 rebounds per game. They also allow the most defensive rebounds in the league with 38.2 per game. Stewart should have no problem cleaning the glass tonight.
This game has the lowest total on the slate at 203 points. Both teams are tied for the league’s lowest field goal percentage at 40.7%. There will be a lot of missed shots thrown up, which will help Stewart and his rebounding numbers.
Over the past three games, the Thunder are also allowing 60.7 points in the paint which is where Stewart does most of his damage. Put-back opportunities will be plentiful for the big man.
I love this prop at even-money on DraftKings. I would not be surprised if it dropped to 8.5 by the time the game locks. Taking this prop now would lock in the most value which is what I am planning to do. I wouldn’t bet this higher than 9.5, just because Stewart is known for getting into early foul trouble.
Paul George, Over 5.5 Assists (-120)
|Trail Blazers vs. Clippers||Clippers -3.5|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Los Angeles Clippers have been struggling lately as they have lost four of their last five games. The Trail Blazers have been even worse losing five of their last six games. They are also coming off of a 145-117 loss at home to the Boston Celtics. Paul George and the Clippers are in a great bounce back spot.
The Trail Blazers rank dead last in Defensive Rating this season. They have allowed 111.7 points per game as their opponents have shot 47.7% from the field which is the second-highest in the league. The Trail Blazers also allow the second-most assists at 26 per game. Defense is very optional for Portland.
Paul George has seen his peripherals increase on the road this season. He is averaging +0.5 rebounds per game (7.6) and +1.5 assists per game (6.6) on the road, compared to at home. His average of 5.5 assists per game on the season is a career-high for George. With Kawhi Leonard out, the offense continues to run through George. He is second in the league in usage rate with 34.2%.
This is such a great matchup for PG-13. Over the last two games, George is averaging 17 points per game, 7.5 rebounds per game and 9.5 assists per game. The prop with the most value is the over on rebounds and assists at 13.5 for +110, but I feel more comfortable taking the over 5.5 assists. I don’t mind taking both, and I would take this assist prop even if it got to 6.5.
Stephen Curry, Under 28.5 Points (-110)
|Warriors vs. Magic||Warriors -16|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Warriors are reeling lately losing two of their last three games. Fortunately for them, they get what should be a layup against the 5-19 Orlando Magic as the Warriors are a ridiculous 16-point favorites at home.
Betting an under Stephen Curry prop is always scary. However, he has been shooting very poorly as of late. Over the last three games, Curry is averaging just 20.7 points per game and has shot 27.5% from the field during that time. However, Curry can view the rim as an ocean after he makes one layup.
He should have no problem against this Magic team who ranks 26th in Defensive Rating this season. They allow 110.5 points per game. Where they really get hurt is from behind the arc. The Magic allow 13.2 3-pointers made per game with an average of 34.8%. That could be a problem as the Warriors make the second-highest mark in the league at 15.2 3-pointers per game.
Curry can get over 28.5 points in limited time, but I have to trust the numbers on this one. This game could honestly be over at halftime and Curry could realistically only play three quarters tonight. The Warriors have such a talented and deep bench, there is no reason for Curry to play well over 30 minutes if this game is out of reach. If the Magic miraculously keep this game close, it is not like we are done either with how poor Curry has been shooting lately.
It’s Curry so I highly doubt this number would move down at all which would likely give us more value. Shop around for the best odds on this prop, but right now that is on DraftKings. I would certainly bet this again if it moved up to 29.5.