After a .500 weekend going 3-3, we’ll try to break that tonight by getting into the green! Yesterday was a success with points props, so we are going to run it back again tonight. Big names on the card for this seven-game Monday night slate.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Over 31.5 Points (-130)
|Hornets vs. Bucks||Bucks -2|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
These two teams played in their last game with the Hornets winning 114-106. The 220 points scored was pretty disappointing and I don’t expect that to happen again tonight. The Bucks shot 38.9% from the field. This game should be closer to the 236-point projected total given how both play this season.
Despite only scoring 106 points last game, Antetokounmpo finished with 43 points and 12 rebounds. He will likely draw another start at point guard with Jrue Holiday out. The Hornets lead the league in Pace this season and allow a league-worst 116.3 points per game. They also allow a league-high 24.1 points scored in transition. This is where Antetokounmpo took advantage last game and will likely take advantage once again tonight. He leads the league in possessions and points scored in transition. He will feast in the open court again tonight.
Since returning from health and safety protocols seven games ago, Antetokounmpo has averaged 33.9 points, shot 57.9% from the field and 31% from 3-point range. Giannis also has averaged an impressive 37.8% Usage Rate during that time and ranks second in the league in Usage Rate with 34.5%.
Depending on your risk, FanDuel does have this prop at 32.5 points with better value on the over, but I decided to play it a little safer and stick to DraftKings with the line set at 31.5 points. I love Giannis wherever you can get him tonight.
Joel Embiid, Over 30.5 Points (-110)
|Rockets vs. 76ers||76ers -10|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The 76ers have won six-straight games and a big reason for their success lately has been the dominance of Joel Embiid. The 76ers are 10-point road favorites tonight against the 11-30 Rockets. Time for Embiid to crush again.
Embiid has been an absolutely monster lately in the paint. He has scored 31 or more points in six-straight games and eight of his last nine. During those nine games, Embiid is averaging 32.8 points and a 38.8% Usage Rate per game. He has recorded a double-double in six of those nine games, while also having a triple-double in one game. He is playing on an elite level right now.
The lone triple-double was against this Rockets team when they met seven days ago in Philadelphia. Embiid played 30 minutes as the 76ers rolled 133-113. He finished with 31 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists. I’m not sure I expect another triple-double, but I do think Embiid scores at will again.
This matchup for Embiid is as good as it gets for the big man. the Rockets rank dead least in Defensive Rating this season and second in Pace. They allow the third-most points scored in the paint with 49.6 per game. I don’t see how Christian Wood or any of the other Rockets big men will be able to slow Embiid down tonight.
Embiid is simply dominating the paint recently and I expect nothing less again tonight in this fantastic matchup. I would shop around for the best value. I like getting this prop at 30.5 points, but I would consider it at 31.5 points as well.
Kyrie Irving, Over 19.5 Points (-110)
|Trail Blazers vs. Nets||Nets -9|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
It is rare to see the Nets at full strength with Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant. This trio only played in eight games together last season and just once so far this season. This will be their 10th game together since linking up.
What a great matchup to play together in. Unlike the Nets, the Trail Blazers are very injured right now. They will be playing without their two stars Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Nets are 9-point road favorites. The last time this trio played together Irving was playing in his season debut against the Indiana Pacers.
The Trail Blazers rank 29th in Defensive Rating and allow 112.6 points per game which is the fourth-highest in the league. They allow their opponents to shoot a league-high 47.7% from the field and 37.6% from behind the arc.
Despite not playing all season, Irving played 32 minutes last game as he went 9-for-17 from the field and finished with 22 points. The Nets were ecstatic to get Irving back on the floor. He can only play road games, so he will be well-rested tonight. In his only game this season, Irving was second on the team with a 28.4% Usage Rate behind Durant. Using our On/Off tool, in their eight games played together last season, Irving was second to Durant again in Usage with 23.7% when the trio were on the floor together, which means Harden typically takes the step back.
Our model has Irving projected to score 25.4 points tonight. That total far exceeds this 19.5 points prop and makes Irving one of the best values on the board tonight. There are a few sites with this exact prop line, but the best value right now is on FanDuel. I would take this points prop up to 20.5 points tonight.