The past two days we have had a player be ruled out just before games tipped off. Just a reminder to make sure to stay up to date on the news dashboard to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight since the latest game on tonight’s slate tips at 8:30 p.m. ET.
With nine games in total, three players have caught my attention tonight. Using NBA projections from the Action Labs Player Prop tool, I have laid out the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
Let’s jump right into tonight’s bets.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Cade Cunningham, Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
|Pistons vs. Trail Blazers||Pistons -8.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Pistons and Trail Blazers don’t have much to play for anymore, but there is plenty of upside down the stretch from a prop perspective. The Pistons have the third-worst record in the league, while the Trail Blazers have lost 10 of their last 11 games.
Despite having a worse record, the Pistons are sizable home favorites tonight as the Trail Blazers have allowed a ridiculous 125.7 points per game in their last 11 games since the All-Star break. They also rank 29th in defensive rating. They have thrown out make-shift lineups just trying to get through the season.
Jerami Grant is out for the Pistons tonight, which one would think increases the value of Cade Cunningham. However, in the 20 games that Cunningham has played without Grant, he is averaging 16.9 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. His Usage Rate has also drops from 28.1% to 26.2%. Not very promising.
The tough part to avoid is not only the matchup, but the massive playing time that Cunningham has recently. Over the last five games he is playing an absurd 40 minutes per game. During that time he is averaging 23 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, which would still go slightly under this points/rebounds combo prop.
Our model has Cunningham projected for 24.2 points and rebounds tonight. Don’t get too carried away with this line even though the projection is extremely low. I would feel comfortable taking it at 29.5, but not any lower. This matchup is far too good and Cunningham is playing so many minutes.
Kyle Lowry, Over 5.5 Assists (-130)
|76ers vs. Heat||Heat -2.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This East showdown features the conference-leading Miami Heat and the third-place Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat are slight road favorites, mainly due to Joel Embiid being listed as questionable.
This game is going to be a slug fest. Both teams rank in the bottom four of Pace this season and top-10 in Defensive Rating. This game features the lowest total on the slate, which is down to 214.5 points depending on the book. There will be limited offense to go around.
Regardless of the slow pace, this Lowry prop seems too low. Our model has Lowry projected for a whopping eight assists, which provides incredible value for this line. Since returning from injury, Lowry has averaged 6.7 assists per game while having double digit assists in two of those six games.
The 76ers rank sixth in allowing the fewest assists per game to opponents, but that is mainly due to their slow pace and having Embiid in the middle defensively. If he is out on this back-to-back for the 76ers, I love this Lowry prop even more — Philly’s Defensive Rating drops from 110.3 to 115.6 without Embiid this season.
This is a prop that alternative lines can be played as well. If Embiid is out, I don’t mind getting aggressive and taking this prop at super juiced odds on 9.5 assists. For being conservative, take it now at 5.5 assists before it moves up.
Reggie Bullock, Under 11.5 Points (-115)
|Mavericks vs. Timberwolves||Mavericks -2.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
This matchup between the Mavericks and Timberwolves is massive for seeding in the Western Conference. The Mavericks have won eight of their last 11 games while the Timberwolves are the hottest team since the All-Star Break winning 10 of their last 11. The Mavericks are slight home favorites.
Taking a player in this game is very intriguing since I will be in attendance. Seems like a necessity to bet while going to a game nowadays. Looking through both teams, this Reggie Bullock under points prop stood out the most in our model. A little weird, but certainly trusting the model on this one!
This matchup is a pace-up spot for the Mavericks as they rank last in pace this season, while the Timberwolves lead the league. This game has a healthy total of 230 points. In their two previous meetings this season, both games finished at 216 points. Bullock missed both of their games due to an injury.
Bullock is very much a boom or bust player who relies solely on his 3-point shot — 76.4% of Bullock’s field goal attempts come from behind the arc. He is shooting 34.5% from distance while averaging 8.2 points per game. Bullock has failed to reach 12 of more points in four-straight games.
Our model has Bullock projected for nine points tonight, despite this game having such a high total. Luka Doncic continues to lead the league in Usage Rate and field goal attempts per game, so there isn’t a lot of love to go around. I would take this prop down to 10.5 points without hesitation.