We went 3-1 for props during the weekend, which is pretty good! Let’s see if we can build on that tonight with these three props. The over’s have been hitting for us lately, so let’s go right back to the well again tonight.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three props that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Joel Embiid, Over 38.5 PTS + REB + AST (-105)
|76ers vs. Magic||76ers -14|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
After missing 10-straight games due to Covid, Joel Embiid returned to the 76ers lineup logged the second-most minutes he has ever played in a game. That is a little surprising as we normally see a light minutes restriction always on Embiid. He played 45 minutes in a double-overtime loss to the Timberwolves and finished the game with 42 points, 14 rebounds, three assists and he also made 16-of-21 free throws.
The minutes last game is a little scary for tonight, but this is such a great spot for Embiid that I can’t ignore this prop. This is probably the riskiest prop I have today, but this matchup is so tasty.
I like a lot of Embiid’s props tonight, but the prop with the most value was taking the over points, rebounds, and assists. The Orlando Magic rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season while they have allowed 110.9 points per game. They also rank 20th in Rebounding Percentage allowing 47.2 rebounds per game, which is the seventh highest mark in the league.
Despite this game having the lowest total on the slate tonight with 205 points, the 76ers are implied for 109.5 points. They are a ridiculous 14-point favorites. The blowout risk is certainly a factor, but this matchup is incredible for opposing big men, especially when they are monsters like Embiid. This matchup could get even better if the Magic’s starting center Mo Bamba is out.
This prop for Embiid seems low, but there is a lot of risk involved with him per usual. However, even if he only plays in three quarters because this game gets out of hand, I still think he could get there given how dominant he should be in this home matchup. I would bet this even up to 40.5 tonight.
This is the best value Embiid prop I see right now, but I wouldn’t fault you if you liked a different over prop. Regardless, Embiid should feast on the Magic tonight.
Myles Turner, Over 6.5 Rebounds (-135)
|Timberwolves vs. Pacers||Timberwolves -3|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Minnesota Timberwolves are rolling right now as they welcome the Indiana Pacers into the Target Center. The Timberwolves have won six of their last seven games while the Pacers have lost five of their last eight games.
The Timberwolves are an awful rebounding team this season! A big reason why is Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging a career-low 9.1 rebounds per game. This is his first season averaging below 10.5 rebounds per game. The Timberwolves rank dead last in Defensive Rebounding Percentage. They have allowed a league-high 12.8 offensive rebounds per game, which should bode really well for the very athletic Myles Turner.
This is a prime spot for Domantas Sabonis as well, but his playing time has been all over the place recently. Rick Carlisle is playing with his minutes too much. He has logged around 20 minutes for no random reason in two of their last six games. I would much rather trust Turner to get over 6.5 rebounds, before I trust Sabonis to get over 10.5. Sabonis still leads the Pacers with 11.4 rebounds per game, but Turner isn’t too far behind with 7.6 per game.
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Another factor that could be in play tonight is the questionable status of both of the Timberwolves power forward’s. Jarred Vanderbilt and Jaden McDaniels are both questionable to play tonight due to illness. That could make this Timberwolves team even more thin in the frontcourt than it already is. Turner is also questionable with an illness, and you can monitor every player’s status on our FantasyLabs newsfeed.
I honestly would prefer this number to go up to 7.5 rebounds just to get better value on Turner tonight because I love this rebounding spot for him so much. However, I will gladly take it at 6.5 on DraftKings. Turner should have no problem cleaning up the glass all night long in this fantastic matchup.
Damian Lillard, Over 6.5 Assists (+105)
|Jazz vs. Trail Blazers||Jazz -7.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Last prop of the night, I will provide some juice“>juice with this Damian Lillard over 6.5 assists against the Utah Jazz. Our Player Props Model has Lillard projected for 8.5 assists tonight, which makes this prop the most valuable on the board.
It is no secret now, the Trail Blazers have been awful on the road this season. They are 1-9 on the road versus 9-1 at home. That is why this spread is so heavily favoring the Utah Jazz at 7.5 points. However, if you look at the total it is quite high at 223, which is tied for the highest on the slate right now. That up-tempo environment should provide plenty of opportunities for this over.
The Jazz rank eighth in Defensive Rating this season and 20th in Pace. That is why it is a little surprising this total is so high, but I like it! The Jazz have also allowed the fifth least amount of points at 103.3 per game while allowing the third best mark for assists with only 21.4 per game. So why take this prop?
Damian Lillard has gotten over 6.5 assists in six of his last eight games and in 13 of his 19 games played this season. He has failed to get under six assists in just two games. Lillard is averaging 7.9 assists per game which leads the Trail Blazers by a land slide.
Norman Powell is out tonight due to injury, which actually does hurt Lillard’s assist numbers. However, I think the emergence of Anfernee Simons who is averaging a career-high 11.9 points per game on 9.8 field goal attempts per game mitigates the risk of Powell being out.
Lillard ranks seventh in the league in minutes played with 35.9 per game. He notoriously for his career plays heavy minutes so even if this game got out of hand that, I don’t think Lillard will suffer that much in his minutes played tonight. The best value for this prop is on DraftKings right now which makes it easy as the other two props I provided are also there.
If for some chance this prop goes down to 5.5 assists, I would absolutely hammer it. However, I do like the juice it provides at 6.5 assists. Let’s get those Dame dimes tonight!