Tonight, there is a seven NBA slate and it could be a good night for big men. In one of the first games of the night, the Boston Celtics will visit the Orlando Magic. Wendell Carter Jr. will look to take advantage of Boston on the glass, where it could be a little shorthanded tonight.
Alperen Sengun had a big game against Minnesota on Saturday night. Tonight, he gets the Timberwolves at home in Houston. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies nearly rallied from 29 points down last night in Phoenix.
Tonight, they will look to prevent the Kings from lighting the beam in Sacramento. Jaren Jackson Jr. could be a reason why.
Let’s get into how to bet Monday’s top NBA player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Wendell Carter Over 8.5 Rebounds (+106)
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Magic have one of the tallest rosters in the league. Things will get even more crowded in the frontcourt when Orlando welcomes Jonathan Isaac back to the lineup for the first time in two and a half years. One player whose minutes should not be affected is center Wendell Carter Jr.
Since being acquired in the Nikola Vucevic trade, Carter has been a model of consistency. He is usually going to give his team 15 points and nine or 10 rebounds. This season, Carter is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game — just above where this line is set. Carter Jr. has recorded nine rebounds in 16 of his 27 games this season, including six of the past 10 games.
Carter Jr. has recorded exactly nine rebounds in each of his past two games. He had another game recently where he was hooked with eight rebounds. As I mentioned, he is consistent and generally he will be in the range of nine rebounds.
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Tonight, he gets the Celtics who can be generous to opponents on the boards. Per props.cash, the Celtics rank 25th in defending centers, 16th in total rebounds allowed and 23rd in defensive rebounds allowed.
In Boston’s past five games, it has allowed nine rebounds to seven different players, including twice to Mason Plumlee of the Charlotte Hornets. Additionally, the Celtics may be without Robert Williams III as he listed questionable for tonight’s game.
Even if Williams is ruled in, I still like this matchup, particularly if Carter Jr. plays 30 minutes. He averages 30.4 minutes per game this season. When he has played 30 minutes, he has grabbed nine rebounds in 14 of those 20 games.
I’ll take this bet at plus money at those odds.
Alperen Sengun Over 5.5 Assists (-128)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Alperen Sengun is establishing himself as one of the best young passing big men in the league. In his second season, he increased his assist average from 2.6 to 3.3 assists per game.
You may be saying that is still half of what he needs to go over this line. Sengun’s assist line is at 5.5 because he is averaging 5.7 assists in 10 games this month. He has had six assists in each of his last six games. In those games, he is averaging seven assists on 11 potential assists chances. That includes seven assists against Minnesota on Saturday night.
According to fantasypros.com, Minnesota allows the most assists to centers. It is also 22nd in assists allowed overall. In Saturday’s game, the Rockets scored 104 points, but Sengun still went over this line. Minnesota allows 115.6 points per game.
A few more buckets from the Rockets will increase Sengun’s chances of cashing this over.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 14.5 Points (-111)
|Time | TV||10:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the most talented players in the league on both ends, but also one of the most frustrating. Jackson Jr. is averaging 16.1 points per game this season, but he would probably over 20 without the silly fouls he commits. This month, he is averaging 16.7 points in 11 games. That is despite playing just 27.4 minutes per game due to 3.5 fouls per game.
Jackson Jr. has scored 15 points in seven of 11 games this month. One of the misses was against Sacramento, however he finished with 14 points. According to props.cash, the Kings are 23rd in defending power forwards. Jackson Jr. has a three inch height advantage whether the Kings defend him with Harrison Barnes or Keegan Murray. Jackson Jr. scored 22 points against Sacramento in November.
The Kings are 24th in scoring defense at 117.1 points allowed per game. They are 28th in field goal percentage defense and 18th in three-point percentage defense. That sets up well for Jackson Jr. who is shooting 53.5% from the field and 43.6% from deep this month.
Memphis staggers Jackson Jr. a lot with its second unit. That will only increase his chances of scoring 15 points and going over this line.