Monday's NBA Player Props: Happy Birthday, Steph Curry

NBA betting analyst Tyler Schmidt breaks down his three favorite player prop bets from the NBA slate on Monday, March 14.

After easily getting both props Sunday, we go for three tonight on a slate that features a lot of star power. All props listed below are overs and geared around players filling up the scoreboard. We even have a little birthday narrative!

We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Drew Eubanks, Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)

Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Hawks -13
Time | TV 7:30 p.m. ET | League Pass
Best Book BetMGM

The Trail Blazers are coming off of their first victory in their last eight games and also their first since the All-Star break. They beat the Wizards at home and now travel on the road to face the Hawks. It should be no surprise the Trail Blazers are the biggest underdog on the slate at 13 points.

The Trail Blazers were led by Drew Eubanks in their victory against Washington. He posted a double-double with 20 points and 12 rebounds. He shot 9-of-14 from the field while playing a season-high 39 minutes. Eubanks also just signed his third 10-day contract Sunday, so he will be with the Trail Blazers for a little while.

The Hawks do not post a threat defensively, as they rank 27th overall in Defensive Rating. They are a very solid rebounding team led by Clint Capela, who ranks fourth in the league in rebounds per game. They also love playing a big lineup as Capela or Onyeka Okongwu split nearly all 48 minutes.

Eubanks has finished with 21 or more points and rebounds in four of his last six games. The two games he missed the Trail Blazers got absolutely blitzed, losing by an average of 40.5 points. Even though that is certainly possible in this game — the Trail Blazers are that bad — it is not the most likely outcome.

I would bet Eubanks to go over the 17.5 mark, and maybe up to 18.5, but not any higher than that.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Over 27.5 Points (-112)

Thunder vs. Hornets Hornets -10
Time | TV 8 p.m. ET | League Pass
Best Book FanDuel

The Thunder have lost five-straight games and are double-digit home underdogs yet again, this time against the Hornets in what should be a fantastic game environment for both teams.

Arguably the best player on the court tonight will be Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He will be heavily involved in everything they do offensively as his usage rate continues to climb without Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort in the lineup. In 11 games without Giddey this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.5 points on 21.3 field goal attempts per game.

The Thunder are still implied for 111.25 points, as the Hornets rank third in Pace this season, allowing 114.9 points per game. This game total is set at 231.5 points. If the Thunder keep it close, it will be on the back of Gilgeous-Alexander. He has a chance to put up big numbers in this game environment.

Even in a few recent blowouts, Gilgeous-Alexander has been able to get there in volume. He has scored 29 or more points in eight of his last nine games. The game he missed he only put up eight points on 2-of-15 shooting as the Thunder got routed by the Timberwolves by 30 points. During that nine-game stretch, Gilgeous-Aleexander is averaging 30.2 points per game. He has a high ceiling.

Seeing as though Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 29 or more points in eight of his last nine games, I would take this prop up to 28.5 points. He will be aggressive early and often and I don’t see the Hornets blowing them out.

Steph Curry, Over 23.5 Points (-105)

Warriors vs. Wizards Warriors -12
Time | TV 10 p.m. ET | League Pass
Best Book DraftKings

After another slight bump in the road, the Warriors are back on track now as they have won three-straight games. They are 12-point favorites at home against the Wizards, who have lost three-straight games.

We have been down this Steph Curry road many times and it hasn’t always panned out. He continues to shoot a career-low 43.3% from the field and 37.8% from behind the arc. In his most recent game, Curry scored a season-low eight points against the Bucks on only seven field goal attempts.

It’s hard to imagine Curry shooting that few of attempts tonight, especially since it is his birthday. Who doesn’t love a little birthday narrative? Curry has played on his birthday six times in his career. In the last five games he has averaged 28 points per game. This season hasn’t been great, but this is a great spot to target Curry against the Wizards, who rank 24th in Defensive Rating this year.

Another benefit to Curry is that Draymond Green is expected back tonight and will play around 20-23 minutes. Curry’s numbers are much better when Green is facilitating the offense. Not only is Green back, but Andrew Wiggins is listed as questionable. That may provide a little extra usage for the birthday boy.

I love this prop line and would take it up to 25.5 points. Another prop that popped out is Curry over 3.5 made 3-pointers. On his birthday, Curry has averaged 5.2 made 3-pointers and has had four or more in every game. This feels like a Curry explosion spot so take advantage tonight.