I have to say as an NBA fan and bettor, I am loving the Sunday slates over the last few weeks, including four games across ABC/ESPN. However, with the Monday assignment for this column, it also means I have a tough act to follow with so many props hitting in those games. The Suns-Mavs, Knicks-Celtics, and Grizzlies-Clippers games all exceeded 250 points.
Last week was solid as my NBA prop picks went 4-2. However as always, I am chasing that exclusive sweep. These are the three players that I feel will help us get there tonight. Let’s dive into this Monday slate.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Damian Lillard Over 36.5 Points (-130)
|Spread||Trail Blazers -5.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
When I bet a player to score 35+ points, I would prefer odds of +250 or greater. It is -140 for Lillard to score 35 points. While the value on Lillard is gone, it is hard to ignore the consistency. Lillard has scored 36 points in six of his last nine games. That includes four 40-point games and two other games where he finished with 33 points.
It is also to hard ignore’s matchup. According to props.cash, the Pistons are 29th defending point guards. The Pistons are also allowing the third most threes to point guards over their last 15 games. Lillard doesn’t need a great matchup to explode from beyond the arc.
However, he is averaging nearly five threes on 12 attempts per game over his last 10 games. The Pistons have struggled defending guards all season and they allowed 41 points to Zach LaVine on Wednesday. Last time out against Cleveland, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both only needed 24 minutes to crack 20 points. Utilimately, a blowout prevented them from going over their lines.
While the Pistons are a great matchup for most players, they are clearly tanking so a blowout has been factored in when targeting props in their games. However, the Blazers are playing without Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic. They are also on the second end of a back-to-back.
Additionally, the last time Lillard faces another tanking team- the Houston Rockets- he scored 71 points. I’m not saying he is going to drop 70 again, but I feel that at least 37 is likely.
Gabe Vincent Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-152)
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Gabe Vincent is shooting just 32% from beyond the arc this season. However, he’s attempting 5.5 per game this season, so there should be enough volume for him to hit two.. He is averaging 1.7 makes per game this season, so he is slightly over this line on average.
Vincent can be a boom-or-bust player at times. He has gone over this line in five of his last nine games. There two games where he did not make a three-pointer. However, in the five that he went over, he hit at least three three-pointers in all of them. That includes Saturday night game’s against the Hawks when he went 3-for-7 from deep. Vincent has gone over this line in both games against he played against the Hawks this season.
Atlanta is better at defending the three ball than it was last season. It allows the 10th fewest makes per game and ranks 6th in three-point percentage defense. However, they have been vulnerable of late as they have allowed 13 or more in four of the last five games.
On Saturday, Vincent, Tyler Herro, and Caleb Martin made three apiece and went over their lines. The Hawks have also allowed Cam Reddish, Damian Lillard, Darius Garland, and Corey Kispert.
Check out our NBA props page for daily player props lines and projections.
Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Points (+100)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Domantas Sabonis is averaging 18.9 points per game this season. However, over his last 10 games, he has increased that average to 20.7 points per game. He has scored 21 points in six of his last 10 games. In three other games, he scored 18, 18, and 20 points. Sabonis’ consistency is part of the reason I am targeting him tonight, but also this matchup.
The total for this game is 237 points, so oddsmakers are projecting a high scoring game. That is a not surprise with the Kings involved. They have scored scored 120 points in each of their last six games and all of those games had at least 239 points. I also like this matchup against New Orleans.
New Orleans is 9th in defensive efficiency, but they have been vulnerable against big men of late. In their last four games, Jakob Poeltl, Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and Kevon Looney have gone over their points line against the Pelicans. Poeltl and Randle each scored 21 points or more. New Orleans also will be without Larry Nance Jr. tonight and Jonas Valanciunas is questionable.
I would prefer if Valanciunas gets ruled in as he is not a good defender. He would also be in line for more minutes as head coach Willie Green prefers matching him up against more traditional centers like Sabonis. The Kings will also may need a little bit more scoring from Sabonis if De’Aaron Fox (currently questionable) gets ruled out.
Fox also did not play in the first meeting in this matchup and the Pelicans won 136-104. Sabonis scored 12 points in 27 minutes in the blowout. If Sabonis’ plays his usual minutes tonight, I like his chances of scoring 21 points.