With game one in the books for every playoff team, it is important to not overreact even though that is our first instinct. Game 2 is extremely important as teams don’t want to fall down 0-2 and have to get hot in order to come back and win the series.
As always we’ll be leaning on the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the three prop bets that I’m playing, plus the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
There are some great props available for tonight’t triple-header. Let’s dig in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
OG Anunoby, Over 5.5 Rebounds (-135)
|Raptors vs. 76ers||76ers -7.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | TNT|
The Toronto Raptors got ran out of the gym in their first game against the Philadelphia 76ers losing by 20 points. It doesn’t look to promising tonight as Scottie Barnes is out while Gary Trent Jr. is doubtful with an illness. The Raptors are 7.5-point underdogs as they look to even up the series tonight.
Without Barnes and Trent Jr., there will be even more opportunities for the rest of the starters including Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby. There are several interesting props surrounding all three, but the most best prop that feels the most comfortable is Anunoby’s over 5.5 rebounds prop.
Using our On/Off Tool on FantasyLabs, Anunoby has seen the biggest increase in production with Barnes and Trent Jr. off the floor this season. Anunoby has had six or more rebounds in four out of his last five games. Our model has him projected to play 36 minutes tonight, but he always has upside to play more.
The Raptors normally average 13.4 offensive rebounds per game, which is the second-most in the league. However, in their first game they only had seven and now are playing without Barnes and Trent Jr. who average over 10 total rebounds per game. Anunoby will need to step up on the glass in this game.
Jalen Brunson, Under 23.5 Points (-112)
|Mavericks vs. Jazz||Jazz -5.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | NBA TV|
Another team that is down 0-1 looking to avoid going down 0-2, especially at home is the Dallas Mavericks. If they lose this game a 4-0 Utah Jazz sweep is on the table. Unfortunately they will still be without their star point guard Luka Doncic who has a calf injury he suffered in the last game of the regular season.
The Mavericks are 5.5-point home underdogs as they fell a few possessions short in their previous game. Jalen Brunson led the team with 24 points, but only shot 37.5% from the field. He played 41 minutes which is the second-most he has played all season. Expect heavy minutes again if this stays close.
Brunson has taken a major leap this season as he is averaging a career-high 16.3 points per game. In 17 games without Doncic this season, Brunson is averaging 20.4 points and 7.5 assists pre game while shooting 49.3% per game. He has taken a hit in efficiency, but he also has a 26.4% usage rate.
Our model has Brunson only projected for 19.1 points tonight in this tough matchup against the Jazz without their Doncic. The Jazz are the much better team in this matchup, so there is always a chance they run away with this game. Brunson will have a high usage again, but this is a lot of points for him.
Monte Morris, Over 15.5 Points + Assists (-115)
|Warriors vs. Nuggets||Warriors -7|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | TNT|
Taking the underdog once again for this prop on a team that is down 0-1 on the road. The Denver Nuggets are another team who kind of got run off the floor in their last game against the Golden State Warriors. They are seven-point road underdogs tonight as they need someone other than Nikola Jokic to step up.
Even though Monte Morris didn’t play all that well in game one, he still was able to record 16 combined points and assists. A healthy Warriors team is scary to face on the road, but the Nuggets will need Morris to step up in order for the Nuggets to compete in this game. Jokic will get his production, but he needs help as well.
With no Jamal Murray all season, Morris has had to step up in a big way. He is averaging a career-high 12.6 points and 4.4 assists per game this season. That is well over this prop. Our model has Morris projected for 22.5 points and assists while playing 34 minutes. He should be active in this game and series.
This game does have the highest total on the slate at 224 points, despite the Warriors being second in the regular season in Defensive Rating. The Nuggets are still implied for 108.5 points. Morris has averaged 15 points and five assists in four games against the Warriors this season. This prop provides solid value.