I hope everyone had a great weekend and is ready for some Monday night hoops as we get one step closer to Thanksgiving.
There are three props that I found on tonight’s 10-game slate that I absolutely love. Let’s get right to it!
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Jaylen Brown, Under 19.5 Points (-115)
|Celtics vs. Rockets||Celtics -11.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Boston Celtics host the 1-15 Houston Rockets tonight in what should be a route for the Celtics. The Rockets have yet to find a road victory, and I highly doubt it comes tonight, especially with the Boston Celtics now fully healthy.
Fully healthy means Jaylen Brown is back in the starting lineup for the Celtics tonight. There is no news on a minutes limit or easing him back into his normal workload of minutes, but be sure to monitor that news if it comes out. I would not mind getting early on this prop before something comes out on his status.
Despite only playing in eight games this season, Brown still leads the Celtics in points per game with 25.6, barely ahead of Jayson Tatum. There are several factors leading me to this under prop. One is Brown hasn’t played in eight straight games. His last action was on Nov. 4 — 18 days ago — and I think it will take him some time to get back into the flow of the offense.
The second factor is the Celtics are favored by 11.5 points at home tonight against a terrible Houston Rockets team who could be playing without one of their better young players in Kevin Porter Jr. Brown’s minutes upside in this matchup feels very low.
The last factor is Jayson Tatum has really emerged lately. He has three straight games scoring 33 or more points and seven straight games attempting at least 20 field goals. Tatum needs his shots.
I realize seeing this prop set at 19.5 points may be intriguing, but with the factors that I listed I have to take the under in this spot. I would be surprised if this prop got lower, but if it did I would feel comfortable taking it at 18.5 points.
Josh Giddey, Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100)
|Hawks vs. Thunder||Hawks -11.5|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Oklahoma City Thunder are heavy underdogs going into Atlanta to face the Hawks tonight. The Hawks are 7-1 at home and the Thunder are just 2-6 on the road. This game could get away from the Thunder early, but good thing we are focusing on a rookie who should get minutes regardless of a blowout.
The rookie from Australian is really starting to find his groove in the league lately. Over the last three games, Josh Giddey is averaging 14.3 points per game, and 10.3 rebounds per game. Giddey has had to step up lately with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggling. He is shooting just 27% from the field in his last four games. To make matters worse, he is questionable to play tonight.
I’m conflicted as to whether Gilgeous-Alexander being out is a good thing for Giddey or not. If he sits, there is a higher likelihood of a Hawks blowout than if he plays. However, that would likely open up more playing time and usage to go around for Giddey. If the Thunder somehow keep this game close, he could see a season-high in minutes tonight as the primary ball handler.
There are a few Giddey props that I liked tonight, but I wanted to really hone in on his rebounds prop as we get the best value here. Giddey over 6.5 rebounds on DraftKings tonight provides some juice. He has snagged seven or more rebounds in four straight games and in 10 of his 16 games this season.
Giddey leads the Thunder in rebounds with 7.3 per game. Not bad for a rookie! The Hawks are an extremely good rebounding team as Clint Capela and John Collins usually clean up the glass without leaving any leftovers. However, with how active Giddey is on the boards, I love this prop tonight.
This prop is on a few books, but the best value is on DraftKings at +100. I would bet this up to 7.
Desmond Bane, Over 20.5 PTS + REB + AST (-115)
|Jazz vs. Grizzlies||Jazz -10.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Another potential blowout that could affect our prop tonight is this matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz. The Jazz are heavy favorites tonight as they have a 6-2 home record, while the Grizzlies are just 2-5 on the road.
To make matters worse, the Grizzlies just got blown out by 43 points on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves. However, in that game Desmond Bane scored 21 points while making four 3-pointers and added five rebounds in 25 minutes of action. He had a season-high 26.2% usage rate.
The major news here is the injuries for the Grizzlies. De’Anthony Melton is out for tonight, while Dillon Brooks is listed as doubtful. This will be the second game Melton has missed all season and the 12th for Brooks. In those 12 games without Brooks on the floor, Bane has averaged 16.1 points per game, 4.1 rebounds per game and 2.1 assists per game. Which is firmly over this prop.
This matchup against the Utah Jazz isn’t all that great. The Jazz rank seventh in Defensive Rating this season, while they rank 21st in Pace. They only allow 102.4 points per game and their Defensive Rating improves playing at home. The minutes and usage upside for Bane outweigh the matchup in my opinion. Even if they do get blown out like last game, Bane can shoot his way to victory.
I was really intrigued to take the over 14.5 points prop with Bane because I do like that number, but in case he had a bad shooting night I wanted to have an out. It helped that both of the props I was looking at had the exact same value. I would bet this prop up to 21.5 points, rebounds, and assists tonight.