It’s time to start the week off right with three NBA props. With no more NFL until the Super Bowl, let’s make some money in the NBA streets this week.
For those new to betting the NBA, injury news is critical. Follow along here for all of the injury news the closer we get to lock. There are three props that stood out to me tonight, two of which are tied to today’s injury news.
As always, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Let’s dive into the slate!
NBA Player Props & Picks
Tyrese Maxey, Over 19.5 Points (-105)
|76ers vs. Grizzlies||Grizzlies -3.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The 76ers and Joel Embiid were on an absolute tear recently winning 14 of their last 17 games. They were favored by 3.5 points tonight until Embiid got ruled out. Now the line has flipped towards the Grizzlies, which makes sense.
Most will look directly to Embiid’s backup in Andre Drummond. This matchup against the Grizzlies certainly gives me pause for Drummond’s production. The Grizzlies lead the league in Rebounding Percentage this season and rank in the top 10 for fewest points allowed in the paint with 44.8 per game.
Instead, I’m looking at point guard Tyrese Maxey who stands out the most. Maxey thrives without Embiid on the floor. In 11 games without Embiid this season, Maxey is averaging 22.4 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc. His usage rate also jumps from 18.6% to 25.5%.
It is no surprise there is usage and production to go around without Embiid on the floor. He leads the entire league in usage rate with 36.3% and leads the 76ers in points and rebounds. Embiid has been so dominant lately that he is now firmly in the MVP discussion as he is carrying this entire 76ers franchise.
The Grizzlies are in the top 10 in Pace this season, while the 76ers rank 26th. This is a game environment that Maxey should love. I would take this over up to 20.5 points.
Josh Giddey, Over 31.5 PTS + REB + AST (-110)
|Thunder vs. Trail Blazers||Trail Blazers -3.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Oklahoma City Thunder have really been struggling lately losing 12 of their last 13 games. They bring up the rear scoring a league-low 100.8 points per game as they are home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.
To make matters worse they lost their point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander until after the All-Star break. He leads the team in points with 22.7 per game. The first player that pops into mind who will increase production is rookie Josh Giddey. He already is leading the team in rebounds and assists this season.
In the three games that Giddey has played without Gilgeous-Alexander, he is averaging nearly a triple-double with 17 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds. He may flirt with another triple-double in this spot against the Trail Blazers.
The Trail Blazers rank 29th in Defensive Rating and 27th in points against, allowing 112.7 per game. They also allow opponents to shoot a league-high 47.6% from the field and 37.0% from behind the arc. Giddey will serve as the main ball handler tonight against an incredibly weak defense team.
In Giddey’s most recent game without Gilgeous-Alexander, he recorded a huge triple-double with 17 points, 13 rebounds, and 14 assists. I love the idea of sprinkling Giddey to triple-double on DraftKings Sportsbook at +650. However, for this article I will take the over on points, rebounds, and assists.
Andrew Wiggins, Over 24.5 PTS + REB +AST (-125)
|Rockets vs. Warriors||Warriors -10.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Golden State Warriors handled their business at home winning five-straight games and now head to Houston to take on the Rockets tonight. They are double-digit favorites and this game has the highest total on the slate at 228.5 points.
NBA All-Star starter Andrew Wiggins has an … interesting ring to it (especially coming from a Timberwolves fan). It is deserving, though, as Wiggins ranks second on the Warriors in points this season and has shot a career-high 48.5% from the field and 41.4% from behind the arc. This has, by far, been the best season of his career.
It certainly seems as though Wiggins has taken this All-Star starter criticism personal. Over the past two games since he was announced the starter, he is averaging 21.5 points while shooting 56.7% from the field and 56.3% from downtown. He has also averaged 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.
The Warriors are still playing without Draymond Green and Otto Porter Jr. Wiggins hasn’t seen much of an increase without those two in production, but it does solidify his playing time. Playing heavy minutes against the Rockets is always a treat. They rank last in Defensive Rating and first in Pace this season.
Our model has Wiggins projected for 28.5 points, rebounds, and assists which is far above this prop. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are shooting career-low’s from the field this season, which has allowed Wiggins to showcase his talents. I expect him to be very active in this spot against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. I would take this prop up to 25.5 tonight.