Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The All-Star break isn’t for another two weeks, but the league looks just about ready to get there ASAP.
It seems like there are brawls happening every night (entertaining, but still), and looking over the league-wide injury report for Saturday, these players could use some time off to rest and recuperate.
Tonight’s matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors is no exception to that rule. The Mavericks will officially be without their two leading scorers, Luka Doncic and Christian Wood, as well as Davis Bertans, who has been inconsistent all season and Maxi Kleber, who has been on the shelf since December. Even their third-leading scorer, Spencer Dinwiddie, is questionable, leaving their rotation as a big ole shrug emoji heading into Saturday.
For the Warriors, two of their big names are questionable as well, with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both up in the air in terms of their status for Saturday’s game as of writing.
Despite all that chaos, let’s try to dig in to the Mavericks vs Warriors odds and see what edges can be found in this ABC primetime matchup.
The Mavericks’ most recent game was a win over the New Orleans Pelicans, but that papers over just how sketchy this team might look on Saturday. Luka Doncic was forced to exit the game at the 6:47 mark in the third quarter, with the Mavs leading 84-57. The Pels proceeded to outscore Dallas 49-27 the rest of the way, making a contest out of what had been a blowout.
Part of that is the Rubber Band Effect we’re seeing in many NBA games every night, as teams with massive leads see them shrink more often than not. But there is almost no team in the NBA more centered around its best player than the Mavs are with Doncic. He has missed six games this season, and the Mavs are 0-6 in those games, with losses to the Houston Rockets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, and Utah Jazz.
This is also a Mavs team that is the worst in the league against the spread on the road this season (8-17), so even though this is the biggest underdog they’ve been all season — there’s very good reason for that.
Golden State Warriors
On the Warriors’ side, they have been famously better at home this year, 19-6 in the friendly confines Chase Center (we now know that Stephen Curry really prefers to keep his backyard nice and bougie), compared to 6-19 away from home.
On the flip side, the Warriors have been double-digit favorites seven times this season, and they have been far from a lock in those matchups. They are 2-5 against the spread in those games, with three straight-up losses.
Given how chaotic the league has been this season, that shouldn’t be too much of a shock (double-digit favorites are 38-49-3 league-wide this season), but the Warriors have embodied that chaos arguably more than any other team this season, having also won one game as a double-digit dog with all their regulars out as well.
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So with trends on both sides on the spread, and a total that has already been hammered to the under, the derivatives market and player props are going to be the best angles for play.
Because of all the players listed as questionable, player props have not been released yet, but I’ll be looking at a few different angles. First, I’m going to be looking to Tim Hardaway Jr. points prop.
If all three of Doncic, Wood, and Dinwiddie are out, he’s going to be option No. 1, 2, and 3 for the Mavs against a Warriors team that runs the most possessions per game. Even if he is struggling to hit his shots, he should clear 20 with relative ease. If Dinwiddie plays, I’d look to find on that same bet at around +165 odds.
The books might sniff that one out, though, so the more obscure player to target if Dinwiddie is also out is Jalen Hardy. He’s only played in 24 games this season, and has cleared 20 minutes in just four of those games, but three of those four games came when Doncic was out.
Furthermore, in three of those four games, he reached 15 points, including a career-high 25 points against the Blazers just last month. If we get a line around 11.5 points, I would take the over all the way to 13.5 at plus money.
There are a lot of unknowns for this game, but that’s often where you can have the biggest edge if you are on top of things, so keep an eye on the injury report (FantasyLabs notifications on), and be ready to strike when the news comes out.
Pick: Tim Hardaway Jr 20+ points