There are a few grantees in life — Death, taxes, and Warriors putting up a dud in a playoff game. Did the Warriors put that awful performance behind them and are ready to make it back to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2019, or can Dallas hold off for a little longer?
In Game 4, Golden State played one solid part of basketball and shot 48% from the floor, but the defense that has done so well in this series did not play as well.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors (-7) Parlay Odds & Picks
(Tip-Off 9 p.m. ET)
Going into Game 4, 52% of Dallas’ shots came from behind the arc, but they only shot 33%. They attempted 52% of their shots from three on Monday and hit 46%.
The Mavericks will live and die by the three; that’s just their makeup. It’s honestly a toss-up if they’ll hit their shots or not. They have two games in this series (Game 2 & 4) where they’re shooting over 46% from three, while in the others, they’re under 28%. Golden State has to continue and force Dallas to make difficult shots and hope for the best.
Dallas will need to hit their shots because they’re not getting the second chance opportunities. Dallas was one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the regular season (ranked 27th at a 20.4 offensive rebounding rate), and they went way below that average with a series-low 9.1% in Game 4.
Plain and simple, the Warriors didn’t play well. In the playoffs, they had one of those against Denver and Memphis, and they’ve done it in years past in the finals before they hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy. They know they have three more shots to win one with two of those in The Bay.
The interesting narrative will be the status of Otto Porter. He missed Game 4 due to left foot soreness, and his defensive prowess was missed as you saw how much better Dallas was shooting from the wing. Golden State is a much better defensive team with him as they have a 103.4 defensive rating when he’s on the floor and a 112.4 when he’s off. He’s currently listed as questionable for Game 5, so his status is something to watch for.
The Warriors have closed out every series at home. Maybe because they haven’t been in this situation in a couple of years, and they want to clinch every series in front of their fans. The Warriors have been better on both ends of the floor throughout this series, with the exception of Game 4. The efficiency of the Mavericks solely depends on how well they shoot from three. Even in Game 2, when Dallas shot well and built a 72-58 lead going into, Golden State was able to step up and make a comeback. They’ll punch their ticket to the finals tonight.
Leg 1: Warriors -7
Luka Doncic Assists O/U 8.5
Doncic has gone under in all seven of the Mavs losses in this postseason. It’s not that he isn’t generous; it’s just the rest of the lineup has not been consistently scoring throughout the playoffs. Luka will continue to shoot the ball at volume and try to make plays, especially if the Warriors are holding a lead.
Leg 2: Under 8.5
Reggie Bullock Three-pointers made O/U 2.5
As mentioned, the Mavericks are chucking up threes on more than half of their shots in this series, and Bullock is one of the main players doing it. He’s attempted seven or more three’s in eight of 11 games during the playoffs and has hit the over 2.5 in seven of them. Dallas will have to out-shoot Golden State all night to try and keep up, so Bullock will take a lot of looks from beyond three.
Leg 3: Over 2.5
Total parlay odds on FanDuel: +409
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