Mavericks vs. Jazz Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
Some games present turning points for franchises. This game feels like that moment for the Utah Jazz. They thought they might have had such a moment in Game 4 after a thrilling comeback win off a go-ahead lob from Donovan Mitchell to Rudy Gobert.
But the surge was short-lived. The Dallas Mavericks wiped the Jazz off the court in Game 5. Now, with the line fluctuating after conflicting Mitchell injury news, the question becomes one not of tactical adjustments, but of a team’s collective will.
Have the Jazz been figured out? Is this the end of an era? And how can we profit from it? Let’s bet Mavericks-Jazz.
Mavericks Have Multiple Matchup Advantages
Dallas is getting 28.8 points per game in this series off spot-up 3-pointers. The Jazz are averaging 13.6 per Synergy Sports. That gap is massive.
Overall, the Mavs are creating roughly the same quality of looks as the Jazz for the series.
What’s interesting is that in the three Mavericks wins, Dallas has created worse looks on catch-and-shoot shots than Utah based on expected field goal percentage (factoring shooter, contest level, and location per Second Spectrum data provided to Action Network).
Catch-and-Shoot Opportunities in Mavericks Wins — Round 1
When the Jazz have lost games, they created better looks but just weren’t able to hit water if they fell out of a boat. And when the Mavs won, they’ve shot extremely hot.
Now, make or miss league aside, this does hide some of the mechanics involved. This is a “lightly contested” look for example. Maxi Kleber is 3-of-5 on uncontested 3’s in this series, Dorian Finney-Smith is 4-of-9. Those are high percentage opportunities that they are absolutely blistering on.
Jalen Brunson has been absolute molten lava in this series, hitting everything. The situation got worse with Luka Doncic on the court.
The Jazz can’t drop in pick-and-roll against Doncic, he’ll eat them alive with floaters and short jumpers, plus the lob, despite Utah being excellent in that coverage.
The numbers are actually good in a short amount in this series, but look at how much room Doncic has in space on this play. You don’t want to give him this many options.
The Jazz can’t switch in pick-and-roll, either. Mitchell is expected to play — he has been switch bait when healthy, and now he’s banged up. Before Doncic returned, the Mavericks did a great job at targeting Mitchell in pick-and-roll.
Doncic has been a little bold with his target choices, but if they have to go for it, they can. Conley has also been barbecue chicken. Utah can’t send two at the level against Doncic either. That’s been their preferred tactic and boy is it bad. Gobert just can’t contain up there.
The Jazz have given up 1.2 points per possession trying to play at the level vs. Doncic. That’s doom. There just aren’t a lot of good options for them. The Mavericks, to their credit, have them pretty well figured out.
All the Mavericks need to do is stick to the game plan, hit shots (which admittedly can be tough on the road), and exploit their edges and they should be able to wrap this up.
Jazz Need Epic Games From Unlikely Sources
Mitchell is probable to play, which is admirable. The Jazz are going to have to win this game on the strength of their offense. They don’t have the personnel to get stops, so it’s going to have to be offense.
If the Jazz are going to win this, Danuel House and Jordan Clarkson have to have heavy minutes and have great games. Read that sentence again and consider which team you want to bet on.
For the past four years, the Jazz have been easy to solve, and once they’ve been solved in a playoff series, that series has turned dramatically.
Since Dallas adjusted with Kleber playing more and spreading out the Jazz out in Game 2, Dallas has outscored the Jazz by 38 and their one loss in the four games was by one point on a buzzer-beater.
Utah has been solved.
Road favorites in Game 6 are 28-11-1 ATS (71.8%) , and 31-9 straight up. The Mavericks opened as 3-point dogs in Game 6, before an early report on Donovan Mitchell and money moved it to Mavs -2. Then Mitchell was ruled in and as of this writing, the Mavs are +0.5.
Teams that are listed as 2-point favorites or less to 1-point dogs in Game 6 are 10-5-1 ATS (67%).
The signal is pretty clear. The market overvalues home court in a home Game 6 vs. a better team. I don’t think the Jazz should be favored, and I don’t think they can win this series.
The Jazz playing so much at the level on Doncic invites some props. Doncic’s assist prop is 7.5. He had just five assists in the dominant Game 5 win in fewer than 33 minutes. It’s likely that bumps up a bit as the Jazz commit to trying to get the ball out of his hands.
Dwight Powell’s points and assists prop is just 7.5 and I think there’s a decent chance he plays a little more in this one because of his chemistry with Doncic. If the Jazz are going to send two at Doncic, the best counter is short roll plays and Powell is better at that than Kleber.
Finally, Dorian Finney-Smith is averaging 2.6 made 3’s per game in this series and his prop is 2.5, juiced to the under. He’s likely going to get looks out of this coverage with Doncic back.
If you read all this and still want the Jazz, I like the Jazz team total over 104.5. I don’t particularly love expecting adjustments from coaches, and Quin Snyder abandoned the small-ball approach that worked for them in Game 3 completely.
But if they win this game, it’s because they put up points. The team total over is 1-4 in this series, but it’s the only realistic adjustment you can expect from Utah.
Pick: Mavs ML (-108 or better) | Luka Doncic over 7.5 assists | Dwight Powell Over 7.5 Points + Assists | Dorian Finney-Smith Over 2.5 3-pointers | Lean: Jazz Team Total Over 104.5