Mavericks vs. Bulls Odds
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Dallas Mavericks travel to Chicago take on the Bulls on a back-to-back. Can the Bulls capitalize on their massive rest advantage or will they continue to sputter? Let’s look at the odds and offer up a pick and prediction for this matchup.
The story of the Mavericks season has been their inability to hit wide-open, catch-and-shoot threes. However, their luck has started to turn.
The Mavericks have shot over 40% from three in five of their past six games and have exceeded 115 points in all six of those games. During that stretch, the Mavericks have beaten four top-15 adjusted net rating teams and are winners of four straight.
This team is heating up and should be able to stay hot against a Bulls team that doesn’t do a good job of limiting threes. The Mavericks obviously specialize in the three ball, ranking second in three-point rate, attempting about 45% of their shots from deep. The Chicago defense hasn’t been great as they rank just 20th in three-point attempt rate on the season. This is a huge edge for Dallas and I expect the Mavericks to continue to exploit their math edge against the Bulls.
The Bulls have been one of the most inconsistent teams as they have just one win streak on the year and it was just two games back in early November.
Overall, they are 10-14 and rank 14th in adjusted net rating. Their favorable net rating is the result of favorable adjustments, due to the fact that they have played the second-most difficult schedule of opponents, according to dunksandthrees.com.
Chicago’s schedule doesn’t get any easier here as it takes on the Mavericks, who rank fifth in adjusted net rating. The Bulls offense ranks 25th in offensive rating and much of their woeful start has been the product of them not getting good shots. They don’t get to the rim very often and very rarely get clean looks from three, where they 30th in three-point attempt rate.
People begrudge analytics, but a team that ranks last in three-point rate and first in long-midrange rate isn’t going to go very far in the modern NBA. The Bulls are consistently losing the “math” game to their opponents and that is likely not going to change here as the Mavericks defense ranks top-10 in preventing looks from the three-point line and at the rim.
Maybe DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine have outlier shooting games from midrange, but even in that scenario, it’s tough to imagine them outpacing the Mavericks offense.
The one profound edge the Bulls have comes in the form of rest. The Bulls have a two-day rest advantage over a Mavericks team that played Friday night against a physical Bucks team. This is a massive situational edge for Chicago that should not be taken lightly.
The Mavericks have all of the edges in terms of efficiency and shot profile, but the Bulls have a massive rest/travel edge here. There is something to be said for having to travel over night after playing a physical game against Milwaukee and I expect the Mavericks to be a bit sluggish.
The Bulls obviously haven’t been as efficient as the Mavericks, but much of that is due to how difficult their schedule has been. This is the healthiest the Bulls have been all year and I expect them to come out with lots of urgency. Couple that with the two-day rest advantage and I am willing to back the Bulls in a perfect situational spot.
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