Lynx vs. Sun Odds
-118 / -108
-118 / -108
The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun will tip-off the WNBA postseason with Game 1 of their opening round series Wednesday night at Mohegan Sun Arena. The Sun finished with the third-best record in the W— seven games behind the league-leading Aces — while the Lynx finished just below .500.
Here’s a look at the notable trends for each team, along with analysis and a pick from our Action Network contributors.
The Lynx finished the season 19-21 straight up and 21-19 against the spread. In their head-to-head matchups with the Sun, the Lynx were 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS.
Among playoff teams, the Lynx and Sky have played the most games as underdogs this season. As dogs, the Lynx were 14-12 against the spread, the fourth-most profitable team in the league, according to Bet Labs.
The best way to bet the Lynx this season has been on the road, though. Despite a three-game skid in road games to close the campaign, the Lynx were 12-8 ATS on the road, the most profitable team in W in that spot.
As road underdogs? The Lynx were 9-8 on the moneyline, the most profitable team in the league in that spot, including their 87-83 win over the Sun as 12-point underdogs on July 30. A $100 bettor would be up $1,710 playing the Lynx to win outright as road underdogs this season.
The Sun were 27-13 SU this season but 21-18-1 ATS. Their home/road splits were nearly identical: 10-9-1 ATS at home and 10-9 ATS on the road. However, they were the most profitable team as a favorite this season with a 14-12-1 record ATS.
Against teams below .500, the Sun were dominant. They finished the season 13-8 ATS with a 16.7% ROI in such games. A $100 bettor would be up $350 over the course of the season betting the Sun against the spread when they faced a team below .500.
Matt Moore and Dano Mataya discussed this matchup on the latest episode of the Buckets podcast, including how they are betting the series and Game 1. You can listen to the full episode below for their full analysis.
Dano Mataya’s Game 1 analysis: The Sun have not be great at covering double-digit spreads if this gets up to 10. We’ve seen that offense get into lulls, but we’ve also seen them be dominant. It’s a tough read, but I don’t blame anyone for taking the Sun to cover the spread because data says the Lynx really are that bad.
The fact that the over has hit at home 14 out of 20 times for the Sun does scare me a bit because the Lynx have been a pretty solid under team. Maybe the Sun go into a mode where their offense kicks into high gear at home, but they do tend to give up a lot more points at home than they have in the past few years.
I wouldn’t mind messing with a team total here. It always gets dicey in the playoffs with free throws at the end of games, if the game is close. But it’s too close for me to make a move and I think it’s a good game to bet live.
Betting Pick: Play This Live
Matt Moore’s Game 1 analysis: I’ve got this total projected at 164. I want to bet the over, but I don’t feel like I have a high level of trust in either of these team’s offenses over the course of a full game.
Betting Pick: Stay Away
Bryan Fonseca’s Player Prop: For Game 1 on Wednesday, I’m playing Alyssa Thomas two ways. One is to go over her points, rebounds and assists line at 33.5. Thomas only hit this in one of her last five regular season games, but before that last stretch, Thomas went over 33.5 PTS + REB + AST in four consecutive games, which capped off a stretch of doing it in nine of 11 contests.
For more player props analysis, check out my preview of Wednesday’s Game 1 matchups here.