Liberty vs. Storm: How to Bet Breanna Stewart's Homecoming

Action Network contributor Jim Turvey breaks down Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Storm and offers up a betting pick.

Liberty vs. Storm Odds

Tuesday, May 30
9 p.m. ET
Liberty Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110 / -110
Storm Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110 / -110
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The New York Liberty travel to Seattle on Tuesday to face off with the Seattle Storm at 9 p.m. ET. This game will be seen widely as the return home for Breanna Stewart, who spent her first six seasons in the Pacific Northwest, winning a pair of championships with the Storm in her time there.

It’s likely to be a very warm welcome, but once the game tips, the players on both sides will be locked in and ready to go.

The Liberty are massive favorites, but with good reason, as things already seem to be jelling for this superteam, and they might be adding one more (flashy) Avenger to the mix on Tuesday.

New York Liberty

Marine Johannes is an absolute fan favorite, as well as a key cog in this team’s dream rotation, and she has officially landed in the States and is traveling with the team after finishing her season in France. Johannes should slot perfectly as a creative cog off the bench who can pass and shoot as well as any role player in the league – basically the exact type of player any superteam wants.

The Liberty have won two straight. They won their last two games each by more than 15 in home wins over the Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun.

The Storm are much closer to the Fever than the Sun when it comes to talent, but the Liberty will have to be on the road, where they dropped their season opener to the Washington Mystics.

It’s hard to see the Storm being able to keep up with this Liberty team, however, with or without Johannes in the lineup. If we were doing a draft of players on these two teams, the Liberty would have the first two players taken for sure. And they’d arguably have five of the first six, as well, with only Jewell Loyd potentially joining the Liberty starting lineup in terms of talent.

This is a Liberty team that is already moving the ball on offense better than any other team in the league, and it has several very real threats from deep. Their 10.0 made 3s per game rank second to only the Aces this season, which spells trouble for the Storm, who have been dreadful defending the arc in their first two games of the season (47.5% allowed from deep in 2023).

Seattle Storm

The Storm looked a fair amount better in their second game of the season (a four-point loss to the Dallas Wings) than they did in their season opener (a 41-point loss to the Aces). However, it’s hard to see them avoiding an 0-3 start – all at home – on Tuesday night.

Offensively, this team is incredibly reliant on Loyd, with the Notre Dame product taking a full third (!) of their entire shots this season, and more depressingly, scoring more than a third of all their points this season.

Loyd has been somewhat incredible shouldering that load (though naturally, her shooting percentages are rather pedestrian), but that’s a massive task to put on one player’s shoulders, especially as teams will target in on stopping her more and more as the pattern continues.

Kia Nurse is one player whom the Storm will need to shoulder the load, and she performed well in their second game, tallying 20 points after laying a goose egg in the opener.

This will be a bit of a revenge game for Nurse, who was drafted by and played for the Liberty her first three seasons in the league before being traded during the 2020-21 offseason. Nurse also got a minutes boost in the last game that is also likely to sustain, so if the books give her points prop based on her per-game total so far (10.0), I’ll likely be looking to take the over up to around 13.5.

Liberty-Storm Pick

For picks, I really like the Seattle Storm team total under. This game has taken money to the under already, but the potential for a monster Liberty game is slightly scary. The Storm, on the other hand, are a really rough offensive team, and as such, I’ll be playing their team total under 73.5.

Counter-intuitively, I’ll be looking at the Nurse points prop over, only because I don’t think the books will be adjusting for the new number of minutes she is going to have.

Finally, if the books give a deflated number on Betnijah Laney’s points prop (anything at 8.5 or under), I’m to be on the over since she should get some chances to burn the Storm from deep. She is also due for some positive regression on that side of the court.

I also lean to the Liberty -15, though I far prefer it at its opener of -11.

Lean: Liberty -15

Picks: Storm under 73.5; Kia Nurse over 13.5 points; Betnijah Laney over 8.5 points