Lakers vs. Suns Odds
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
Poor Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers can’t catch a break. He has been battling injuries for his entire stint with the Lakers. Davis suffered a huge setback when it was announced on Sunday that he will be out for at least a month with a foot injury after a resurgent start to the season .
On Sunday night, the Lakers powered through and beat the Washington Wizards in a wild finish without their star big man. They are in a terrible spot here. They’ll travel overnight on a second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights to play one of the best teams in the league.
However, the Phoenix Suns are not in a great spot with their injury report. They have already declared back-up point guard Cameron Payne out for Monday’s game. Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are questionable.
On the surface, this appears to be a game to avoid from a betting perspective, but there are some potential angles to exploit once lineups are announced.
Shorthanded Lakers in Brutal Spot
The Lakers are off a close 119-117 win against the Wizards on Sunday night. On their last possession, James recovered from a broken play to find Bryant for a dunk to take the lead. Kyle Kuzma missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer and the Lakers narrowly escaped with the victory.
They’ll turn around and travel overnight across time zones to Phoenix. James played 36 minutes, and while I don’t think he will ultimately sit, I would not be surprised if he did. This just seems like a spot they should punt.
With Davis out of the lineup, Bryant is the starting center going forward. Depending on the price point, his rebound props could be worth a look as I can see him hitting double digits easily with his increase in minutes.
The Lakers struggle on the road, especially as underdogs. They are 2-9 straight up and against the spread in that spot, per the Sports Data Query Language at Killer Sports. They are 4-10-1 ATS against teams with an Offensive Rating better than league average and 3-11-1 against teams with a Defensive Rating better than the league average. The Lakers have not fared well against the league’s elite.
Suns Leaning Into Home Advantage
The Suns are no longer the dominant team they were for the past two seasons. Chris Paul is a year older and has visibly declined. Jae Crowder decided not to report to the team, so they are missing their former enforcer and heart of the team. Neither Ayton nor Mikal Bridges have made a huge leap forward, and the Suns are heavily reliant on Booker for offense. And yet, they currently sit in fourth place in the West with a 18-12 record.
One advantage the Suns have is they are dominant at home. They have a 13-3 SU record at home and are 10-6 ATS. This season, they are 10-4 ATS against teams with an Offensive Rating below the league average, per the SDQL at Gimme The Dog. In fact, they are 56-37-2 ATS (60.2%) dating back to the 2020-21 season. Their defense simply smothers these inefficient offenses.
If Ayton sits, Bismack Biyombo will be the main beneficiary of Ayton’s lost minutes. His presence will slow the game down and improve the defense. Biyombo rebound props and the under on the game total are areas I’d explore if Ayton is ruled out. The Suns are also 4-0 SU and ATS without Ayton this season.
Booker’s absence would obviously be more impactful. In the two games he has missed this season, the Suns are 0-2 SU and ATS. Landry Shamet and Damion Lee will get more minutes if Booker is out, but it will be Bridges who gets the biggest bump in usage. He put up 23 and 24 field goal attempts in the two games that Booker was out, so his points and 3-point props should be targeted if Book sits.
With the respective home/away splits and the fatigue factor for the Lakers, I think the Suns have the advantage here. If Booker is in, I think Phoenix is the right side.
Do yourself a favor and wait on this game, though. There are too many unknowns at the moment.
I’ve included some player prop angles to consider, but we could see a crowded injury report for both rosters here, which would fundamentally change things.
Lean: Suns -9.5 (Up to -10.5)