Knicks vs. Wizards Odds & Picks: Wizards Defense Disappears

Another night in the In-Season Tournament is upon us and the group stages are starting to come into focus. With that focus comes a better idea of what each team needs to do to move on and that could lead to changes in style of play. For a team like the Knicks, already having a loss means needing to win on the margins, like in point differential.

A game against the lowly Wizards should provide a great opportunity for the Knicks to get a win and be able to run it up and leave no doubt like Coach Yoast asked for in Remember the Titans.

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Knicks vs. Wizards Betting Odds

Knicks Wizards
Spread -7 +7.5
Moneyline -290 +235
Total o227 u227.5

*lines accurate at the time of publication

Knicks vs. Wizards Betting Odds

Knicks Team Total o117.5 (-108, FanDuel)

This cap may seem square but it does not mean it is wrong. Unlike the perception of the Knicks, which is that they are a defense-first team, they do play slow but they were a top-10 offense last season and so far this one. In November, the Knicks have the sixth-best offense according to Cleaning the Glass and the Wizards have the 27th-ranked defense.

So far this season the Knicks have played four opponents similar to the Wizards, who like to play fast and have below-average to bad defenses. In those games, the Knicks scored 126, 126, 129, 116. The 116 came against the Atlanta Hawks, who sport a league-average defense in November. Much more palatable than what Washington puts out. The Knicks also have more upside to their offense, while it is sixth, they have the 25th best eFG%. New York is never going to set the world on fire with their shooting but a little improvement is fair to expect.

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What has allowed New York to be so good offensively without shooting well is the same aspect of the game that is a massive advantage against Washington, rebounding. The Knicks are the tops in November in ORB rate and DRB rate, while the Wizards are 30th in ORB rate and 29th in DRB rate. Washington has held opponents under 118 only four times in 11 games and only one of those games came against a top-10 offense. It was against the Hornets when they still shot over 50% from the field but turned the ball over 20 times. The Knicks should not be as susceptible to turnovers, they are 6th in turnover rate this month.

As stated above, the motivation to run up the score will likely keep starters in the game and the foot on the gas longer for the Knicks. Everyone knows it does not take much to convince Tom Thibodeau to play his starters longer minutes than most others would.

Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

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