Kings vs. Warriors Game 4: Are Warriors Overvalued?

Action Network contributor Joe Dellera previews how to bet Kings vs. Warriors Game 4, including updated odds, picks and predictions for Sunday's game.

Kings vs. Warriors Odds

Kings Odds +7.5
Warriors Odds -7.5
Over/Under 238
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Sacramento Kings look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in and record the first road win of this series as the Golden State Warriors attempt to continue their home excellence. Draymond Green, who missed Game 3 due to suspension will be back in the lineup for the Warriors.

Can the Warriors even up the series at two games apiece, or will the Kings push the Warriors to the edge? Here’s my betting preview for Kings vs Warriors Game 4, including a matchup breakdown and prediction.

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Sacramento Kings

The Kings struggled a bit in Game 3, but the overall pace in this series has been electric — though games two and three were a bit lower scoring than Game 1. Domantas Sabonis has struggled in this series and while it seems funny to say someone is struggling while recording 17 points and 13.7 rebounds per game, he is only logging 3.3 assists per game, compared to 7.1 during the regular season. He’s also turning the ball over 4.3 times per game.

His prop line, which is set at 2.5 turnovers (-175) is a bet to me. He’s exceeded that in five straight games against the Warriors and in seven of his past 10 games playing at least 30 minutes.

Part of the Game 3 struggles can be attributed to the moment. The Kings were playing their first road playoff game in years and facing the dynasty that is the Golden State Warriors. That can certainly result in some nerves. But now that is out of the way, so I expect the Kings to fight back in Game 4.

The Kings have struggled with their offense in this series. They have an eFG% of just 48.9%, which trails their expected mark by about 5%. The biggest swing for them has been the inability to make 3s. Sacramento is shooting a paltry 27.9% from 3-point range, while the Warriors (who are also struggling) are making 32.8% of theirs. I attribute much of this to difficulty finding a rhythm and expect Mike Brown to develop some counters for how the Warriors decided to start doubling De’Aaron Fox late in the 3rd Quarter.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors were without Draymond Green (suspension) and Gary Payton II (illness) in Game 3. As they return, the dynamic of the Warriors’ offensive attack changes.

Green is obviously one of the league’s best offensive and defensive engines, but he doesn’t shoot well — especially from distance. In Game 3, the Warriors found success spreading the floor and opening up the interior by essentially having four shooters and Kevon Looney in the game. That is much more difficult to accomplish with both Looney and Green in the game as either could be sagged off of defensively if on the perimeter.

In Game 3, the Warriors also ran a significant amount of high pick-and-roll and dribble handoffs either at or beyond the 3-point line. This opened up the offense in an interesting way. Curry was taking 3s from well beyond the arc because they were open (at least for him). It also dragged Sabonis out to the perimeter, an area he isn’t comfortable in and where he isn’t fast enough to be successful, despite giving effort. The paint was open for the Warriors to attack.

Despite Green’s excellence, will the Warriors be able to replicate this offensive strategy in Game 4 while keeping Looney glued to Sabonis’ side? Or will they have to stagger more minutes between Green and Sabonis?

Kings-Warriors Pick

The Warriors found something in Game 3 on the offensive side of the ball. However, it seems untenable to leave either Green or Looney on the bench. The issue is the lineups with both of them are scoring just 105.4 points per 100 possessions in this series, per Cleaning the Glass. The defensive numbers with both in (particularly Looney) have been excellent, but in a series against the regular season’s best offense, the finding offensive consistency seems like a pressure point for the Warriors.

The Warriors have been an absolute wagon at home with a 34-8 record this season. However, the Kings are 25-17 on the road, both straight up and against the spread.

It seems odd to consider the Warriors as taking a step back with Green returning to the lineup, but they’ll be forced to readjust their offense and abandon something that was effective.

I’ll take the Kings early and often.

Pick: Kings 1H +4.5 | Kings +8