Kings vs. Cavaliers Odds
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The 13-10 Sacramento Kings travel to Cleveland to take on the 16-9 Cavaliers. Both teams are well on their way to overs in terms of their season win totals and both fanbases have to be happy with the way their teams have started the season.
Both teams are also easily in the black in terms of performance against the spread. The Kings (15-8) and Cavaliers (14-9-2) both rank in the top five in the NBA this season in terms of record against the spread.
So, who will win the showdown on Friday night? And more importantly, who will cover?
The Kings season has to be seen as a success thus far, but this stretch is going to be one of their biggest tests yet.
They kicked off a six-game East Coast road trip on Wednesday, falling 126-113 to the Milwaukee Bucks. While a road loss against Milwaukee isn’t anything to worry about, the news coming out of the game that De’Aaron Fox has been dealing with a foot issue is somewhat troubling.
At the same time, it could also be read as heartening for Kings fans, given that the sixth-year guard really hadn’t looked himself of late. After averaging 25.9/5.0/6.4 in his first 15 games, those numbers had dropped precipitously to 16.1/4.9/4.0 in the past seven games. Not at all unrelated, the Kings were over .500 in those first 15 games and are under .500 in the past seven.
Fox may rest Friday in order heal his right foot. If Fox is indeed out, it will be interesting to see what route head coach Mike Brown goes. Davion Mitchell is the best position-for-position fit, but Malik Monk has been playing great, averaging 14.8 points per game in just 22.5 minutes off the bench.
Monk has really been picking up the slack with Fox a bit hampered and has averaged 19.3 points in the past seven games. I’ll be eyeing his points prop for an over.
As for how the two teams match up, they are at extreme ends of the pace spectrum. The Kings boast the fifth-fastest pace in the league, while the Cavs play the slowest brand of basketball in the Association.
Both teams are great of the defensive glass, but the bad news for Sacramento is that the Cavs can punish the Kings’ poor three-point defense. However, the Kings take far more threes, so they will be hoping the math problem plays out in their favor.
The Cavs also have questions around their lead dog as Donovan Mitchell, who scored 43 points in a win over the Lakers on Wednesday, is listed as questionable on the injury report.
This is a little bit of guesswork, but if pressed, I would guess both Fox and Mitchell will sit out. It sounds like each team wants to give its lead guard a night off and if that’s the case, I think it hurts Sacramento more.
For as great as Mitchell has been this season, Caris LeVert can replicate 80% of Mitchell’s production in a random regular season game. In fact, similar to the Monk bet, I’d be looking at a LeVert points prop over if Mitchell sits.
I also like the Cavs -5 if both guards are out because Jarrett Allen is back, and I am the world’s biggest Allen apologist. It is no surprise to me that the Cavs are 13-5 when he plays and 3-4 when he is out. He is an elite defender, an outstanding rebounder (on both ends) and maybe most importantly, he unlocks Evan Mobley to be a Swiss Army Knife defender.
The Cavs will also be without Kevin Love, so their depth will definitely be tested if Mitchell rests, but as long as Fox is out, I’ll be on the Cleveland side.
In addition to their ability to hit threes at a high rate (eighth-best three-point field goal percentage this season), this is a team that is the third-best in the league by net rating and should be able to stall out a Kings offense without its star (assuming Fox is out).
We have to do a bit of injury prognostication, but assuming Fox and Mitchell are both out, I like Cleveland all the way out to -6.5.
I also potentially like Malik Monk and Caris LeVert on their points props, but it’s hard to predict what lines the books will post because both will likely have to wait on the final injury news, so make sure to follow me in the app @TurveyBets.
I also am likely to play Jarrett Allen over on his points prop, given that the Kings frontcourt defense is a weak spot and Allen showed no rust in his first game back.
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