Jazz vs. Mavericks Odds
|Jazz Odds||-5.5 (-105)|
|Mavericks Odds||+5.5 (-115)|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
Utah managed to hold off the Mavericks in Game 1 despite a subpar game from Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert having just one field-goal attempt.
The Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic again in this game. Can they pull off the upset without their franchise cornerstone, or will they face an 0-2 deficit heading to Utah?
Let’s bet Mavericks-Jazz.
Gobert to Play Key Role for Jazz
Utah had a tough time with Dallas in Game 1. It shot 43% from the field and put up just 22 3-pointers.
The Mavs’ switching defense gave them problems; Utah shot just a 42.9% eFG vs. the Mavs’ switch in Game 1, but it consistently drew fouls to help its points average.
But the Mavericks didn’t go full switch. They used more screens at the level than anything in Game 1, to mixed success. They held the Jazz to just a 40.6% eFG in those instances, which is great.
However, it has costs. On the dagger 3 from Royce O’Neale, the Jazz slipped Rudy Gobert. Gobert is wide open under the basket, but of course, Mitchell doesn’t pass to him. Mitchell passed to Gobert once in Game 1. Not once for an assist. Once.
But Spencer Dinwiddie is caught worrying about tagging Gobert on the roll, leaving O’Neale. Dinwiddie’s closeout is poor, and O’Neale hits the stepback.
O’Neale shot 39% from 3 this season. He’s capable of knocking that down.
However, the overall results kind of indicate that the scheme worked. They had enough success. The Jazz posted an offensive rating of just 108. You live with that if you’re the Mavs.
What’s most interesting is that the Jazz didn’t have a high-expected percentage game where they underperformed. They had an expected eFG%, based on the shooters who shot, where they shot from and the contest level, of just 49.9%. For perspective, that was the lowest of the weekend.
Mitchell for sure missed shots that he can make in the first half but was bonkers in the second half.
What is certain is that Gobert is going to dominate the glass. He grabbed 17 rebounds, and his rebounds prop is up to 15.5 for this game from 13.5 Saturday. The Mavericks are going to play high or switch and are playing small anyway. That advantage isn’t going away.
Dallas Must Shoot Better in Game 2
The adjustment for Dallas is pretty obvious. There’s nothing super complex about this. It has to get better production from its lead guards. Jalen Brunson and Dinwiddie shot a combined 15-of-39 from the field for 39%.
That came against a drop defense that has the best rim protector in the league but also has guards you can separate from.
This is where the size problem factors in. The Jazz ran pick-and-roll with guards and wings to get mismatches vs. switches and put guys out of their comfort zone. The Mavericks just basically ran pick-and-roll with Dwight Powell.
Not only is Powell not a pick-and-pop threat, but he’s not big enough to clip the Jazz guards, which allows them to stay attached.
There’s not an obvious fix for this without Doncic. Maxi Kleber’s shot has been too inconsistent to trust, and the Jazz will tear up Boban Marjanovic if they pull the emergency cord on him.
The Mavericks scored better in isolation possessions than Utah, but the efficiency is still too low. Dallas managed to put up 32 3s but couldn’t knock them down. That’s the Mavs’ best chance to even the series — getting better shooting on 3s, which the Jazz will give up.
Gobert played awesome in Game 1. He was a monster defensively.
But a lot was made of the Mavs’ reluctance to attack the rim. The Mavs were 30th in rim rate this season. They don’t attack the rim anyway. This is why it’s going to be vital for them to reverse the ball in pick-and-roll coverage by overloading one side to continue to create 3-pointers, and actually knock them down.
I’m definitely on the Gobert prop again. Dallas just has no way to keep him off the glass with personnel or with scheme.
This line is annoyingly low at Jazz (-5). I was hoping Utah would take some money to pull it up, but instead in the Action Network app, Utah is getting 53% of the tickets and Dallas is getting 52% of the money. It’s a coin-flip inside two possessions.
I lean Dallas here.
It shot worse than expected in Game 1 and has a number of options for simply playing better to get Dinwiddie and Brunson some open looks. The Mavericks shot 8% worse than expected in Game 1, based not only on shot location and contest level, but the shooters involved. They had a bad shooting night and still almost pulled it out. Plus, they’re at home.
The total has to be a stay-away. The Mavs could very well just have a rotten shooting night again, and the Dallas defense did bother Utah in Game 1.
But I still think we’ll see more 3-pointers in this series, even with the Mavs’ switch limiting how many Utah took in Game 1. I played the over in Game 1, not factoring how the Mavs’ switch would be focused on deterring those 3s.
I don’t think there’s value on the total.
I don’t feel great about Dallas, but I lean Mavs, with a Gobert over 15.5 rebounds prop.
Pick: Mavericks +5 or Better | Gobert Over 15.5 Rebounds.