Hornets vs. Warriors Preview: Fast-Paced Offenses Give Value to Over/Under

Action Network NBA betting analyst Joe Dellera breaks down the betting value in the NBA matchup on Wednesday between the Hornets and Warriors.

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Hornets vs. Warriors Odds

Hornets Odds +6
Warriors Odds -6
Over/Under 226
Time 10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Charlotte Hornets head to the Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors in a meeting of two of the league’s most fun teams to watch.

Can LaMelo Ball lead this Hornets team to a victory against Steph Curry and the Warriors? Or will Golden State stay on top of the Western Conference?

Let’s break it down.

Can Offense Continue to Carry the Hornets?

The Hornets have started the season off with a strong 5-3 record and are in the top eight in the NBA in point differential (+3.0) primarily due to their excellent offensive output. The Hornets have the second-best Offensive Rating in the league, 114.1, but they’ve been held back by a defense that ranks third worst at 111.1, per NBA Advanced Stats.

One thing we can look at to see if this is sustainable is expected vs. actual eFG%. The Hornets have an actual eFG% of 53.9% compared to an expected of 53.2%, so the offense seems sustainable at least from this metric. The problem is this also applied to Charlotte’s defense.

According to data from Cleaning the Glass, the Hornets allowed eFG% is 54.4% while their expected allowed is 52.4% — both would be underperforming relative to the league average. The Hornets play at the fifth-fastest Pace in the league (101.92), so their entire game plan is to run and gun with the best of them.

One reason for this improvement from the Hornets’ offense is the dramatic improvement by Miles Bridges. He’s basically doubled his scoring output from last season and is averaging 23.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.8 steals.

Bridges has been an incredible contributor for the Hornets, and the team being +21.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor truly demonstrates his value.

Golden State Off to Golden Start

The Warriors are … back?

Even without Klay Thompson, the Warriors are sitting at 5-1 toward the top of the Western Conference. While they just received news that James Wiseman has been cleared to return to full practice, they still won’t have his talents for this game.

On the season, the Warriors have the fifth-best Net Rating (7.8), in large part due to their defense which is third-ranked defense (98.7), per NBA Advanced Stats. Golden State’s offense has been acceptable, as well, having posted a 106.6 Offensive Rating through six games while scoring 41.1% of its points from behind the 3-point line.

Additionally, similarly to the Hornets, the Warriors have returned to playing fast — they are third in the league in Pace (102.39).

One issue with the Warriors’ defense is they allow 3-point shots at the fifth-highest rate in the league (42.4%),. Fortunately for them, the Hornets are situated similarly and allow them 40.7% of the time.

With the Warriors’ propensity to shoot 3s, they should get the shots they want against the Hornets.

Hornets-Warriors Pick

This should be a fun matchup between two fast-paced teams, but I’d give a slight edge to the Warriors if you are looking to play a side.

However, I’m turning to the total for the matchup.

With two of the fastest playing teams in the league that allow a high frequency of 3-point shots, we have all the makings of a shootout. The Warriors and the Hornets are ranked sixth and seventh with Team eFG% just 0.1 apart with the Warriors narrowly edging Charlotte with a mark of 53.8%.

These teams have strong shooters, play fast and both allow a lot of 3-point opportunities. I’ll bet on points in this matchup.

Pick: Over 226