In the final week of the regular season, motivation can be everything and in this game both teams have clear objectives that lead towards another performance Pistons fans will want to forget.
Detroit has been almost impressive in their push to the bottom, losing 20 of their last 21 games. Miami has had their issues getting ahead of Brooklyn to avoid the Play-In but the possibility still exists, so the Heat should be coming into this game focused.
Heat vs. Pistons Betting Odds
Odds and lines accurate at the time of publication
Heat vs. Pistons Best Bets
Pistons Team Total u103.5 (-105, PointsBet)
Since their last win, on March 13th, the Pistons have gone under this team total in five of their nine games, and are averaging only 104.6 points. Included in that stretch was Detroit’s second meeting against the Heat, where the Pistons only scored 100.
While Detroit is not going to find many matchups that work in their favor with a vast majority of their normal rotation out, Miami is especially bad for them. When the Heat have been burned defensively, it is generally by teams that shoot the ball well, especially from deep and the Pistons are not capable with their personnel. Since the all-star break, the Pistons are 28th in three-point shooting and 24th in attempts. Miami is fourth in preventing shots at the rim since the all-star break, so they will sacrifice shots from deep to protect the rim and for a team that has not shot well in Detroit, that limits the easy baskets possible.
The Heat also slow the game down, limiting the amount of possessions and opportunities Detroit will have to get over this total. In their last meeting, there were only 90 possessions on each side. For perspective, in the last two weeks of games, the team 15th in pace was at 99.44 possessions per game. The Heat are at 92.93 possessions in that time. To hit this number that requires a higher efficiency from the Pistons and they have a league worst 51.1 eFG% since the all-star break.
Detroit is a horrendous team at the moment but what the Miami Heat bring to to the table in terms of pace and defense may not be valued enough in this matchup, especially with Bam Adebayo likely to play.
Risk: 1.05 units on PointsBet to win 1 unit.
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