Heat vs. Hawks Odds
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Hawks host the Heat in a pivotal Game 4 after Atlanta won its first game of the series in Game 3 thanks to Trae Young’s game-winning floater with just over four seconds left.
The Heat not only lost Game 3, but they also lost point guard Kyle Lowry, who exited the game with a hamstring injury. At the time of writing early Saturday afternoon, it appears unlikely Lowry will play in Game 4, but he hasn’t officially been ruled out.
Will the Heat rise to the occasion without one of their key veterans? Or will the Hawks protect their home court and even the series before heading back to Miami for Game 5? Let’s break it down below.
Jimmy Butler Is Key to Offensive Attack
If the Heat win on Sunday, it will be because at least two of Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus step up alongside Jimmy Butler with Lowry sidelined.
The Heat will likely play slower in the half court with Lowry out, and his absence should mean more minutes for Vincent, Herro and Strus. I am a big believer in Vincent and although he had a rough shooting night in Game 3 (1-6 for three points, including 0-5 on threes), I’ll be keeping an eye on his player props in Game 4 as I think he will bounce back and get the start.
With Lowry out, Vincent is the Heat’s best option and the only other point guard on the roster. He is also stout defensively. Playing two of Herro, Strus and Duncan Robinson together gives the Hawks’ offense multiple pressure points to potentially take advantage of, so Vincent’s impact will be key.
The Heat also need a big night from Butler and to continue playing offense with quality spacing and ball movement. It’s imperative that Butler doesn’t settle for jumpshots after early ones go in. Butler’s ability to cut and post up his defenders will be key and playing with better spacing and ball movement will really help out the rest of his teammates.
Hawks Need Big Night From Beyond the Arc
If the Hawks win Game 4, it will be because they limit their turnovers while shooting a high percentage from beyond the arc.
After shooting 28.9% on threes in Games 1 and 2 on the road, the Hawks shot 37.5% in Game 3 at home. The Hawks, who had the lowest Turnover Rate in the NBA in the regular season, also took much better care of the basketball in Game 3. After turning the ball over on 17.4% of possessions in Game 1 and 18.6% of possessions in Game 2, the Hawks turned the ball over on just 11.8% of possessions in Game 3.
Keeping their three-point shooting above 35% and turnovers under about 14% will be key against a Heat team that thrives in transition.
Young has done a quality job of fighting defensively despite the Heat targeting him frequently both on and off the ball. His defense is just as important as his offense with the rate the Heat involves him in their actions. After averaging 5.5 assists and eight turnovers in Games 1 and 2, Young had eight assists and just three turnovers in Game 3. It’s clear the Heat are focused on stopping Young from scoring first, so Young needs to be efficient as a facilitator.
With the Heat emphasizing stopping Young on defense, I like the value on playing Under 27.5 (DraftKings, -115) on his point total as he has scored 8, 25 and 24 points through three games in this series.
With Lowry out, I also will look to play the over on Vincent’s point total. While these have not been posted at the time of writing, I will look to play his overs up to 11 points and would love to parlay this with the Heat on the moneyline/spread. Vincent did a tremendous job of stepping up in Lowry’s absence in the regular season and I think he’s got the intangibles to stay on the court in Game 4.
If Vincent scores efficiently, that means more minutes with him on the court, which means the Heat will be better suited to defend Young. Consequently, if you want to parlay Vincent points over, Young points under, and a Heat win/cover (if available), there could be value there.
While I expect the Heat to bounce back and win Game 4 thanks to their flowing offense and strong, switch-heavy defense, I prefer to either parlay them to win with one of these point totals or play them on the live moneyline as there should be opportunities to live bet them after they give up a first half run and plus money is available.
Pick: Gabe Vincent Point Total Over (up to 11) | Trae Young Under 27.5 Points | Heat Live Moneyline