Heat vs. Celtics Odds & Picks: Take The Under With Confidence

After a miraculous offensive rebound and putback layup by Derrick White, as time expired, the Celtics did the near-impossible and forced a Game 7 against the Heat after finding themselves in a 3-0 series deficit.

Still, no team in the sport’s history has ever crawled back from down 0-3 to win a series. That said, the Celtics have all the momentum in the world and head back home to TD Gardens to take their final shot at NBA history on Monday.

With them sitting as seven-point favorites, the spread is a bit uncomfortable from a betting standpoint. Instead, I have my sights set on the total based on trends we’ve watched unfold as the series has gone on.


Heat Celtics
Spread +7 (-108) -7 (-112)
Moneyline +245 -300
Total 203.5

Odds and lines are accurate at the time of publication via FanDuel Sportsbook.


Under 203.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

As alluded to previously, there are a few things that have stuck out as the series unfolded. The first is the point totals across the six completed games, outlined below:

  • Game 1: 239 points
  • Game 2: 216
  • Game 3: 230
  • Game 4: 215
  • Game 5: 207*
  • Game 6: 207*

As the series has gone on, the point totals have dropped dramatically, and understandably so, as the defense tightens up and teams get more and more familiar with each other.

You’ll notice a pair of asterisks accompanying Game 5 and Game 6, as well. In Game 5, both teams shot over 50% from the field. In Game 6, there were over 60 total free throws attempted between the two teams (an insanely high number). For reference, the only other game in this series where both teams made over 50% of their shots was Game 1 (239 points).

This illustrates just how much the pace has slowed down in this series given the stark difference in points despite the similar efficiency to Game 1, as Game 6 saw these teams run at a pace of 90 points per 100 possessions, while Game 5 saw them play at a pace of 87.5 points per 100 possessions. As for Game 6, it feels rather self-explanatory that we shouldn’t expect another 60-free-throw-attempt game from two teams that averaged a combined 44.2 during the regular season.

On top of these series trends, the overall trend we’ve seen for Game 7s over the last few years has been alarmingly obvious – 14 of the last 17 Game 7s (since May 2018) in the playoffs have gone under their implied point total (82.3%) with an average implied game total of 209.4 across those 17 games. Defense tightens up, games slow down, and teams struggle to erupt as they did early in the series.

I want to continue to bank on this trend in Game 7 on Monday, so I’m taking the under 203.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Risk: 1.1 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

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