Heat vs Cavaliers: Target the Total in Cleveland

Action Network contributor Chris Baker provides his betting picks and prediction for the must-watch League Pass matchup between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds

Heat Odds +2
Cavaliers Odds -2
Moneyline +110 / -130
Over/Under 204.5
Time Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Here’s everything you need to know about Heat vs. Cavaliers on Wednesday, Mar. 20 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today’s game.

The Heat will travel to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers on Wednesday night. Both teams have injuries to key players, but which side will rise to the occasion?

Find my Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA betting preview below.

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Heat vs. Cavaliers Prediction

Pick: Over 201.5

Heat Betting Outlook

Monitor the injury report for the Heat as key contributors like Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jovic are both listed as questionable as of this writing. Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love are all out for this matchup for Miami.

The Heat have a decent Offensive Rating of 117.4 with Butler on the floor this season, but they drop about seven points to a 110.5 Offensive Rating when he is on the bench. If Butler and Jovic play, I’d expect the Heat offense to have success here as the Cavs have been absolutely terrible defensively without Dean Wade, Evan Mobley and Max Strus in the lineup (which will be examined below).

Butler, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Terry Rozier should have consistent advantages at the point of attack against this weak Cavs perimeter defense.

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Cavaliers Betting Outlook

The Cavs are coming off an impressive road win over the Pacers where the Cavs were missing three starters and one key rotation player in Dean Wade. The Cavs have battled through injuries all of season and have somehow managed to stay afloat as they are still third in the Eastern Conference.

The Cavs will be without their three best wing defenders as well as star point guard Donovan Mitchell once again. They have an awful Defensive Rating of 126.7 (second percentile) and a great Offensive Rating of 120.6 (84th percentile) when those four are off the floor this season.

It seems like Darius Garland provides a steady floor for their offense, but they are unable to defend at a high level while giving major minutes to Sam Merrill, Georges Niang and Caris LeVert. The Cavs recently also added Marcus Morris to strengthen their scoring punch and shooting off the bench. Morris was a major reason for their win in Indianapolis as he contributed 14 points while making four of five shots from beyond the arc.

This is an elite shooting team already, but if Morris starts to contribute at a high level, this offense could become a top-five offense when Mitchell is back healthy.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Picks, Odds

I like Over 201.5 at this current number as I have no respect for the Cavs defense despite a poor shooting effort from the Pacers on Monday night. The data shows that the Cavs defense is horrible without Strus, Wade and Mobley, and as long as Jimmy Butler plays, the Heat offense should have success here.

This is an extremely low number for an NBA game, and given the Cavs’ defensive weaknesses, I am willing to back this game to go over this tiny number.

Pick: Over 201.5