Heat vs. 76ers Odds
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
On Monday night, the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers will collide for the first time since last season’s Eastern Conference semifinal. In that series, the Heat eliminated the 76ers in six games behind Jimmy Butler’s masterful performance.
The 76ers, winners in five of their previous six games, will look to bounce back from an excruciating loss against the Boston Celtics where they squandered a 17-point lead. The Miami Heat have been struggling lately and will look to snap a four-game losing streak.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as our pick and prediction for 76ers vs. Heat.
The Miami Heat are wrapping up a four-game road trip before returning to Miami for a six-game homestand. Things have not been going well for this Heat team as they have lost four in a row and are 1-8 against the spread in their previous nine games.
Their offense has been pitiful. In their past five games, the Heat are 28th in Offensive Rating (105.7), per NBA Advanced Stats. This team is really having trouble scoring the ball this season. Their scoring ineptitude has made them one of the more underperforming teams this season with a 21-37-2 ATS record. In their previous six games, they are averaging 103.2 points per game.
Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry are listed as questionable and Kevin Love is probable for Monday night.
Lowry has been out, so that is not a big surprise, but Herro would be a huge hit to the struggling Heat offense. The On/Off numbers show the Heat’s Offensive Rating decreases by 5.1 points per 100 possessions with Herro off the court, per Basketball Reference. The Heat are 4-1-1 to the under on the road when Herro doesn’t suit up, per the SDQL at Gimme the Dog.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been incredible lately and the James Harden and Joel Embiid tandem has been looking dangerous. Philadelphia is looking to finish up a five-game homestand before going on a five-game road trip. The 76ers will be looking to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss to the Celtics in which they gave up a 17-point lead and a go-ahead 3-pointer from Jayson Tatum with a second left in the game.
The 76ers have an excellent home record. They are 24-9 straight up and 22-11 ATS at home this season. On the contrary, the Heat are below .500 on the road with a 13-19 record (13-18-1 ATS). The 76ers have a well-rounded team that ranks eighth in Offensive Rating and seventh in Defensive Rating. They are one of three teams ranked in top 10 in both categories (Celtics, Cavaliers).
One advantage the 76ers have is their 3-point shooting, which is ranked fourth in the league in terms of percentage. The Heat have trouble defending the 3-pointer as they are 20th in 3-point percentage allowed and 29th in opponent’s 3-point rate.
The home/away splits and recent performances all point to the 76ers being the right side here. Add in the playoff revenge factor and the prospect of Herro missing this game and I think this is a one-sided affair in favor of Philadelphia. I make this line -7.5 and would play the side up to -7.
With how terrible the Heat offense has been, the under also makes a lot of sense here. In situations where the home team is in a revenge spot from last season’s playoff series and the teams are facing each other for the first time since then, those games have gone 82-59-6 (58.2%) to the under dating back to the 2003-2004 season, per Killer Sports.
Both teams are great defensive teams and play at a slow tempo, which is conducive to low-scoring games. I like the under, but I anticipate there could be some upward movement and that the under could potentially be had at a better price.