Grizzlies vs. Warriors Preview: Rested Golden State Offers Value

Action Network NBA betting analyst Joe Dellera breaks down Thursday night's matchup between the Grizzlies and Warriors, including offering up his top pick.

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Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds

Grizzlies Odds +5.5 
Warriors Odds -5.5 
Over/Under 233 
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Grizzlies are on the second night of a back-to-back against Steph Curry and the 4-0 Warriors.

Can the Grizzlies rebound and take down the undefeated Warriors, or will Curry & Co. make it 5-0? Let’s break it down.

Ja Morant Rising Alongside Grizzlies Teammates

The Grizzlies have experienced significant growth from rising superstar Ja Morant. He’s attacking the basket with vigor and success that has not been seen except by the best interior scorers.

Morant has performed this way without one of his counterparts, Dillon Brooks, who will remain out through this contest.

However, there have been a few that have risen to the occasion along with Morant.

One is Desmond Bane. The second-year guard has averaged 19.3 points, 4.7, rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Bane has significant volume from 3-point range, averaging 7.7 attempts and 2.7 makes through 3 games.

He dropped 19 points on a highly efficient 7-of-12 shooting (4-of-7 from 3) vs. the Blazers on Wednesday night. I’ll absolutely be looking at his props tomorrow night (points around 13.5 and 2.5 3’s at +$).

One issue I have with this offense is outside of Bane, the Grizzlies do not take many 3’s.

While they are efficient on the interior, it’s tough to match the Warriors without perimeter shooting.

Warriors Taking (And Giving Up) Tons Of 3s

The Warriors have been ultra efficient, as they’ve defeated all of their California counterparts and the Oklahoma City Thunder. But one could argue that they’ve made these victories more interesting than they should have been.

One concerning issue for the Warriors is the volume of 3-point shots they are surrendering to opponents. Opponents are taking 41.1% of their shots from 3-point range, and had they played better 3-point shooting teams, this could have been problematic (the Clippers are typically a strong 3-point shooting team but were a bit off in their contest).

One positive has been how strong their rim protection has been. Not only are they reducing opponent’s opportunities, but they have the 11th-best shooting percentage allowed at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass.

They’ve then secured defensive rebounds at a 78.0% rate and have limited their opponents to the second-fewest Second Chance Points per game (7.3), according to NBA Advanced Stats.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Warriors look like the Warriors. Draymond Green is handling the ball more, Curry continues to absolutely bury treys and Jordan Poole has jumped in as the substitute Splash Bro.

At the time of writing, they have the sixth best Offensive Rating (111.4), while playing at the eighth-fastest pace in the league (103.63), per NBA Advanced Stats.

This is an offense to be reckoned with.

Grizzlies-Warriors Pick

The Grizzlies are on the final game of a four-game road trip and played on Wednesday in Portland. While I like their chances during the season as a whole, this is a spot to back the rested Warriors.

Under Steve Kerr, when the Warriors are home favorites with a rest advantage against a team on a back-to-back, they are 33-24-1 ATS.

I’ll lay the points with a Warriors offense that excels from the perimeter and limits opponents’ second-chance points.

Pick: Warriors -5.5