Grizzlies vs. Clippers Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Memphis Grizzlies face the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday night on ESPN in what may be the Twitter game of the year.
Unless you’ve lived under a rock the past week, you’ve seen the meltdown going on in Memphis.
The Grizzlies are second in the Western Conference, but the Kings are suddenly just one game back in the loss column and the rest of the West is ‘fine’ just licking their chops.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are in a mini-meltdown of their own, having lost their first five games since bringing in their new big-name buyout signing, Russell Westbrook. He isn’t the lone reason the Clippers are sliding, but doing stuff like this to the team’s spacing isn’t doing the Clippers any favors either.
I don’t know if there’s been a game with a bigger challenge for bettors to disengage from the narrative storylines, but let’s see what we can do.
The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams on Sunday night, leaving them with a depth chart that will look roughly like this:
PG Tyus Jones-Kennedy Chandler
SG Desmond Bane-Luke Kennard
SF John Konchar-David Roddy
PF Jaren Jackson Jr-Jake LaRavia
C Xavier Tillman-Santi Aldama
It’s not a terrible team, but it lacks a lot of creation and the bigs are very thin. The latter likely won’t matter as much against a Clippers team with that same issue, but the lack of creative ability will hurt against any opponent.
Morant has missed nine games this season, and the main pattern that has emerged is that Brooks often picks up the slack of go-to guy on the offensive end. He has led the team in field goal attempts in four of the eight games in which he played and finished second in three more.
There’s only been one game in which neither Morant nor Brooks played, and it was unsurprisingly a lackluster 106-103 loss to the Toronto Raptors. Bane and Jackson led the team with 17 field goal attempts each, but the offense got stagnant down the stretch, scoring just 17 points in the fourth quarter en route to a blown lead and loss.
I’m going to be looking at Jackson’s Points+Rebounds+Assists props to see where they open, but I’m also going to be looking at the Grizzlies team total for a potential under.
Los Angeles Clippers
Sunday night is the start of a five-game homestand for L.A. and the first of stretch in which nine of 10 games will be played at Crypto.com Arena. Given that there are only 16 games left in their season — and that the Clippers, the preseason favorites, are in the play-in position in the West — it’s clearly go time.
This is the time of the year the Clippers were supposed to hit the gas, but instead they’re been floundering more than ever.
That being said, Kawhi Leonard sat out Friday’s loss to the Kings, and both he and the team have been strong in the games after he sits lately. It’s a small sample, but the Clippers are 3-1 and Leonard is averaging 32.8 points per game in the games in which he sat out the previous game.
Of course, I couldn’t trust this team any less right now, so I’ll be targeting the latter half of that trend instead of the former.
The Clippers side of this spread certainly looks tempting, but I really try to avoid betting Clippers sides at all costs because I struggle to pin them down in my numbers, and they have proven themselves as the most inconsistent team in the league (a glorious oxymoron).
There are, however, a couple of different angles that could prove interesting if the numbers come out low.
I’ll be looking at Jackson over 26.5 points+rebounds+assists if that’s the opener. (That was the number the last time Morant and Brooks were out.) And I’ll be on the Grizzlies team total under 110.5. Both as leans (half unit plays for me).
But my favorite bet is Leonard’s points over. For his last extra-rested game, the books boosted his prop a bit to 23.5, and I would take that to -125. I would also take over 24.5 at -110.
Additionally, I’ll assess the 30+ point market and will likely be tweeting out a play for that after I am able to shop lines for it upon release.
Pick: Kawhi Leonard over 23.5 points
Leans: Jaren Jackson Jr. over 26.5 points+rebounds+assists
Grizzlies team total under 110.5